Theory Study On Passenger Flow Forecasting Of The Passenger Special Line And Its Application

As a kind of new transportation manner, high-speed railway acts more swiftly, more safely and more comfortablely. Together with its lower energy consumption and lager transportation capacity, it serves mainly as the most effedtive solutions to the passenger transportation problem on busy trunk line connecting big cities. Since the Donghaidao Shinkansen in Japan was put into operation in 1964, high speed railway has gained favorable economic and social benefit, which assures its powerfully full flourish within the whole world. In China, the conflict of the capacity utilization between passenger and freight transportation has lasted for a long time, which made the bad impression of the travelers on the railway service. In order to solve the problem of highpitched transportation capacity, also meet the gradually higher demand of the transportation service, the state has constituted the medium and long period layout of the railway, according to which our country is about to constructing the passenger special line with great and full mighty.For the passenger flow volume determines not only the technical norms and the equipment quantities but the project benefits, also the operation mode and organization scheme, so in planning and constructing the passenger special line, forecasting the passenger flow acts as the most basic content, meanwhile, realizing a scientific and reasonable forecasting is provided with great significance. The paper here aims at establishing the passenger flow forecasting manner for the passenger special line which fit our nation well to help make decision on the passenger special lines' construction.In the paper, several passenger flow forecasting manners of passenger special line, popular both here and abroad, were introduced at length at first. After making some simple comments on them, a new forecasting manner was put forward, which was based on the fact of transportation industry's marketing, upheld by the analysis of influencing factors on travelers' choice of the transportation tools, and took the "four stager manner" as its forecasting process and Analytic Hierarchy Process as its main body. Thereafter, took the passenger flow of the Wuhan-Guangzhou passenger special line as an example, the very forecasting manner was put into practice. At last, according to the analysis on the forecasting result, it came to some acceptable and novel conclusions such as "it is unacceptable for the travelers to transit during the travel "but "whether the high speed train stock runs on the existing line should be ascertained by the specific condition between the particular OD", the operation of high speed powered berth accords with the demand of the railway passengers transportation and "more swifter, more comfortable and more convenient travel will become the new aim for the passenger transportation and so on. All of these conclusions proved the forecasting manner to be scientific and reasonable. At the same time, it also provided some certain support and reference for the decision on the Wuhan-Guangzhou passenger special line's planning and construction.