Risk Analysis Of Economic Evaluation Of Coastal Dikes Project

The storm surge was due to the intensity disturbance of the atmosphere, makingthe tide levels of affected area far more than normal tide levels and people’s lives andproperty be highly threat. China was one of the countries which were impacted bytropical storm surge and temperate storm surge. And because of Chinese coastal cityof rapid development, assets concentrate, dense population, the loss caused by thestorm surge in a gradually increasing trend. In the1950s, the direct economic loss inan average year caused by the storm surge was100million yuan. And to the1980s,the direct economic loss in an average year caused by the storm surge was about2billion yuan.Coastal dikes were a water retaining structure to protect the coast from floodingby the storm surge and the attacking by waves. The construction of coastal dikesproject needed long period and large investment, so economy evaluation wasnecessary before the construction of coastal dikes project. At present, in manyfeasibility study of Water Project, the scheme was evaluated feasible or not byanalysis the expectations of each scheme’s economic evaluation index.But in Water Project, random indefinite factors made the project uncertain. Sothat evaluating the scheme feasible or not by analysis the expectations of eachscheme’s economic evaluation index had some risk. Therefore the risk analysis ofeconomic evaluation was needed to make the decision more scientific and reliable.In the paper, risk analysis theory was applied to the risk analysis of economicevaluation of the coastal dikes project. Considering correlation of the variables, therisk analysis model of economic evaluation of the coastal dikes project wasestablished. The risk ratio corresponding to that certain economic evaluation indexwas gotten. All the work would provide more scientific and reliable basis for the riskanalysis of economic evaluation of the coastal dikes project.The main content of this paper: (1) The related content of economic evaluation of the engineering and the basicmethod of the risk analysis were recalled. the advantages and disadvantages of eachmethod were gotten. The shortcomings of risk analysis of the Water Project wasanalyzed.(2) The risk analysis model of economic evaluation of the coastal dikes projectwas built, and the correlation between variables was taken into account. The variablesof the correlation coefficient were determined by the Experts Scoring method. MonteCarlo method was used to simulate the income and expenses of economic evaluationof the coastal dikes engineering, and the Particle Swarm Optimization method wasused to fit the probability distribution of variables.(3) The uncertainty of variables was analyzed which influence economicevaluation index. The sensitivity factors was determined to remind decision makers tomake attention to the sensitivity factors,and some useful conclusions were drawn.