Ziyang Electric Power Load Forecasting System Design And Implementation

The development of Power Systems and Electricity Market,the management ofmodern PowerNetworks becomes more and more complete.The application ofEMS(Energy Management System)hasbeen widely applied.Short-term loadforecasting(STLF)system is an important module of EMS andcritical component ofElectricity Market Operation System.Studying theory and algorithms of STLFandemploying an effective and applicable STLF system are becoming an importanttask.The algorithms ofSTLF and its application software system are studiedelementarily in this paper.According to characteristics of STLF,the Artificial NeuralNetwork(ANN)model is introduced toSTLF.It brings forward a new model based onResource Distributing Network(RAN),whosecharacteristics and modeling course arediscussed thoroughly.The model is first applied on the domain ofSTLF and is validatedwith a high precision by actual examples.Expert System is introduced to modifytheresults of RAN and has a higher precision in the thing of fluctuation ofweather.According to the practical demands of electric department,a whole STLFsystem based onDispatching Automation System for district power networks issuccessfully developed.The systemintegrating with Dispatching Automation System hasadvantage of real-time,economy and practicality.Client/Server mode is used in thesystem Oricle with safety and stability is employed asbackground databaseplatform.Core program and GUI are developed by C++Builder,which is an OOPandvisual programming tool.Multiple methods,such as Least Mean Squares,linearregression,time series,similar day,artificialneural networks and their combination areintegrated in the STLF system.Method library is coming intobeing.Abundantforecasting models and methodologies are provided to validate differentforecastingresults.It has been proved by practical data that this system cancommendably satisfy demands of loadforecasting of district power networksplanning,and can present accurate future load magnitudes andincrease planner’s workefficiency,with friendly man-machine interfaces,convenient accesses andcompletegraphical functions.