The Study Of Development Stage Of Electric Power Network And Its Enlightenment

Electric power network does not continuously develop at high speed. As the community economy and electric power infrastructure tend towards stability, the development of the electric power network will ultimately be saturated. Studying on the course of the development of electric power network in developed countries, selecting the appropriate country for our reference, selecting the primary characteristic parameter and optimal regression model, discussing the stage of the development of electric power network and then summing up the experiences beneficial to the future development of China’s power industry, consist of the main work of the paper.Firstly, the paper summarizes the status of the various stages of the modern world economy and the development of electric power industry. Then, from the perspective of GDP, electricity consumption, power generation, installed capacity, maximum load, length of transmission line, electricity consumption composition and investment in power industry, the course of the development of the economy and the power industry of seven developed countries, namely, the United States, Japan, Great Britain, France, Germany, South Korea and Singapore, is fully discussed, so as to summarize the characteristics of the development of electric power network in developed countries.Next, the paper describes the mathematical methods related to the topics, including correlation analysis and regression analysis. The correlation analysis contains a scatter plot analysis, correlation coefficients, and hypothesis test. The regression analysis elaborates S-curve regression models such as Logistic, Gompertz and Richards, the nonlinear model parameter estimation algorithm, and several methods to evaluate the effect of model fitting such as the goodness of fit, significance test and error analysis.Then, the development course of the economy and the power industry of the above seven developed countries and China (Zhejiang Province) is compared in order to make choice of the reference country. Through correlation analysis, eight characteristic parameters, i.e., per capita GDP, per capita power investment, per capita amount of power liability, per capita electricity consumption, per capita power generation, per capita substation capacity, per capita substation number and per capita length of220kV overhead line, are compared and selected so as to make choice of the primary characteristic parameter used in regression analysis. Logistic curve model and the Gompertz curve model are employed in the regression analysis of the primary characteristic parameter respect to the reference country, three aspects, namely, the goodness of fit, the fitting error and whether it is in line with the stages of development of the actual electric power network are compared to select the optimal model. Based on the selected reference country, the primary characteristic parameter and the optimal regression model, the specific stage of development of the electric power network is analyzed, the names of the various stages of development and its criterion are put forward, and the characteristics of each stage is well summarized.Finally, the paper discusses the characteristics of the development of China economy and power industry since the reform and opening up. In view of the unbalanced development of China’s electric power network, it is necessary to select a representative region. Based on the above analysis of the development of electric power network in reference country, the paper researches on the development stages of China’s electric power network and its characteristics, also compares with some developed countries. Research conclusions of power grid construction and planning principles when load is saturated are summarized at last.