Research On The Evolution Of Large City’s Public Transport Demand Structure Based On The Markov Theory

After entering the21st century, our social and economic have realized rapid development, national living standards continue to improve, mass populations have the tendency to move to large cities, then so many private cars lead travel demands shapely grow and motorized travel needs become more and more complexity in large city. However, the transportation infrastructure construction relatively lags behind, and there is some negligence to management, so metropolitan transportation travel related issues become increasingly prominent. The metropolitan transportation travel has many aspects of problems, including traffic congestion, traffic revenue and traffic pollution problems. Among them, the traffic congestion problem has the most direct and significant impact on people’s daily life and production. These problems’ existence largely because people lack a deep understanding of the demand for transportation evolution, and government can not give effective countermeasures from the management and supply aspect. Therefore, in order to effectively solve the existing traffic travel problems, the in-depth study on the traffic demand structure as well as evolution of the law of demand structure is necessary, made transport supply and transportation be on speaking terms, then, the transportation demand management fits in the transportation demand trends.In general, this paper focuses on the rules on metropolitan public transport demand evolution. The rules consist of two aspects, which one is the game between private cars and public transport, the other is public transport own structure evolution. Firstly, this article introduces the basic concept, characteristics, and influencing factors about the large city’s Public Transport Demand Structure; In the second, upon the public transport demands of the developed urban cities’evolution status quo at home and abroad, this paper summarizes up the general rules of the evolution of large city’s public transport demand structure; After that, to establishes the Markov model to quantify the dynamic change process of urban public transport demand structure, and predict the trend of demand for public transport; Then using Guangzhou and Shanghai to demonstrate empirical analysis of the research for this article and shows that large city’s public transport demand structure evolution has certain rules. Finally, the article puts forward some relevant recommendations for urban transport demand management.