Research On CA-Markov Model For Port Land Use Change

The construction of a port is often regarded as a means of promoting urbanization of coastal districts and spurring economic growth around those regions. However, the ever expanding ports are taking up a lot of land resources in the coastal areas, which is threatening the regional eco-safety. Thus, it is necessary to have a good knowledge of the dynamic changes of port land use to instruct the port to develop sustainably.The existing researches on port land change are not that much, and most of which cannot achieve quantitative analysis of driving factors, nor can they simulate the port land change. This paper establishes a quantitative analytical method to obtain the relationship of driving factors and port land change based on logistic regression and MCE (multi-criteria evaluation). Then the CA-Markov model is introduced and improved for port land use simulation purpose.This paper discusses the classification method for port land change research, and proposes a modified land use transition matrix according to the characteristics of port land use. Factors driving the change of port land are analyzed. Then a quantitative method is established to measure the suitability of port land influenced by driving factors, and validation rules of CA-Markov model is proposed based on suitability maps and simulated results. At last, this paper takes an actual port as example, and simulates the change of port land by CA-Markov model. Results shows that CA-Markov can simulate the land use trend of port accurately, and can provide a reference for port planning.