The Research On The Classification Of Risk Early Warning Of Maritime

The risk early warning of maritime is an important part of maritime emergency management. The effect of the warning reflects the emergency response capacity of The maritime safety authority, the success early warning can make people full mental preparation when the accidents happen, do well in advance of emergency preparedness, and reduce the losses caused by the accident. Our warning and preventive action has been using a graded response policy.The classification directly determine the warning effect.Nowadays,the classification of risk early warning of maritime in our country divided into four, the information is embodied in the form of weather forecasting. The method has been used by maritime administrations for many years.It effectively reduced the probability of accidents at sea and contributed to the safety and security at sea. However, it also exposed the defects of the current warning classification method when it’s in practice.The defects included the object of early warning is rough, early warning indicators are too single.Moreover,it lack of a comprehensive and quantitative mathematical evaluation model of the early warning,the last but not the least, the ship under the early warning level is difficult to accurately determine their risk. The defects have seriously affected the efficiency of early warning, causing lack of emergency preparedness and early warning overreaction occurred frequently. However, currently there are few studies on the classification of maritime risk warning.And, risk assessment methods are often simply transplanted to risk early warning Therefore, exploring a more complete method of the classification of risk early warning is significant for the protection of maritime traffic safety.The paper firstly describes the research on the warning classification of the related industries, after analysising and comparising the early warning models in various fields, we decided to use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to study the classification of risk early warning of maritime. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is in line with the maritime authorities’requirements.By analysising maritime risk factors,I establish the maritime risk warning indicator system, extend single natural factors in the original classification method to multi-level index system ncluding environment, marine, the development of the police intelligence.By expanding the original four levels early warning to seven levels,I increase the distinction between the police levels in order to improve the accuracy of the warning results. At the same time, innovativly classificate the ships of different scales and types to achieve the purpose of classification warning. At the technical level,I get index membership on expert scoring method and determine the weight of each index by AHP method.After all,I finish establishing maritime risk warning hierarchical model.Finally,I validate the model, obtain all types of vessels alarm level under the same conditions. The alarm level evaluation results are reasonable. The research can provide theoretical and technical support for the warning work of maritime safety authorities, help to improve the efficiency of early warning,protect the safety of life at sea and reduce the losses caused by the perils of the sea accident.