Study On The Evaluation And Early Warning Of China’s Seaborne Crude Oil Imports Security System

The National Energy Commission was established on January27,2012, which indicating that China is moving from a higher global perspective to examine the strategic position of energy, to ensure national energy security. In recent years, the substantial increase of transportation and agricultural machinery, and the increase restrictions of coal use in industrial sector, accelerate the consumption of crude oil. In order to compensate for the lack of domestic crude oil production capacity, the overall trend of crude oil imports volume showed a rapid increase in recent years. According to Customs statistics, China’s crude oil import volume has reached271million tons and dependence on foreign oil was56.4%in2012. Above90%crude oil trading was completed transported by maritime, however, China’s "national oil fortunes" ratio is far below the United States, Japan, Korea and other oil importing countries, which makes China’s crude oil transportation has been controlled by others in a long time. Higher import dependence combined with the vagaries of international situation, especially the situation changes in crude oil producing countries, poses a severe challenge to China’s crude oil import security. Therefore, in order to guarantee the steady development of our economic, it is an urgent problem to study and analyze the present stage and future trend of transportation safety of China’s crude oil imports, and establish the safety evaluation and early warning system of China’s imported crude oil transportation.Based on the analysis of China’s seaborne crude oil import demands from1996to2012, using Combination of trend extrapolation method, gray prediction and BP neural network forecasting model to predict the volume of China’s seaborne crude oil imports from2013to2017. And using quadratic trend extrapolation, linear quadratic moving average method, and linear quadratic exponential smoothing forecasting methods to forecast the crude oil shipping demand of each routes from2013to2017. Based on the analysis of our tanker fleet capacity, this paper established a multi-stage dynamic programming model to optimize the tanker fleet size considering the carriage share. Then Systematically analyzes the factors that influence the safety of China’s imported crude oil transportation. Security evaluation system of China’s crude oil import transportation is constructed. This paper gives the safety evaluation about China’s crude oil imports transportation by applying the cloud model based comprehensive evaluation method. Finally, the maritime safety warning model is established. It develops the China’s crude oil imports maritime safety warning system by using Visual Basic6.0programming language. Using this system it forecasts the future development trend of China’s crude oil imports maritime security. Based on the forewarning analysis results of these five warning subsystem, this paper proposes some pre-control measures and safeguard mechanisms to safeguard China’s crude oil imports maritime safety. The research results have important theoretical and practical significance.