Safe Assessment Of Container Ship Navigating In Heavy Sea Based On Evidence Theory

With the development of the economy, the shipping industry has become one of the most important industry in the world, which maintaining the trade between countries. Among them, container shipping industry which took over most of the transport of goods, has become the artery of global economic. However, during the development of container shipping industry, the security problem of the container ship is also more and more serious. Ships may inevitably encounter heavy weather while navigating on the sea. Heavy sea is an important factor affecting the safety of the navigating ship. For container ships, the stowage above deck is more than others, which on one hand improves the height of center of gravity, reducing the initial metacentric height GM value, on the other hand increases the area exposed to the wind ship, reducing the wave resistance level of ship. In addition, the container ship swaying motion in heavy sea will make lashing equipment loosed, also can cause falling of the containers, even leading the ship to capsize. Therefore, it’s extremely important to carry out the safety assessment of container ships in heavy weather.This paper firstly introduces the classification and characteristics of container ships, next analyzes the risk when ships navigating in heavy sea, then establishes the index system composed by four subsystems of "human, ship, environment and management". In the management factors, this paper mainly discuss the emergency management based on the safety assessment of container ships in heavy weather. For the complexity and uncertainty of the information of ships navigating in heavy sea, and the advantage of evidence theory dealing with fuzzy information and uncertainty problem, this paper tries to introduce the evidence theory to the safety assessment of ships navigating in heavy sea, and establish the safety assessment model of container ships navigating in heavy sea based on evidence theory. Finally, the conclusion verifies the feasibility of the model through an example, which providing the certain reference value for safety assessment of container ship navigating in heavy sea.