Effect Of Climatic Condition On Yield Of Potatoes In Hubei

The potato is one of the main economic crop yield.There are many factors affect potato chips, such as the varieties of the fertile land, policy on growing potatoes.Meteorological condition is also a very important factors. So, it is important significance to increase the production that researching how to Meteorological factors affect the production of the potatoes.The logic thinking is as follows:Collect potato yields of counties and cities of Hubei Province and daytime meteorological factors during potato-growth period between 1990 and 2009. First, according to the observations of meteorological factors, divide counties and cities of Hubei Province into different season climatic areas of potato-growth. Then, examine how meteorological factors affect meteorological yields during 4 potato-growth periods of each climatic area. There are 4 steps of this section. Firstly, calculate meteorological yields of potato. Secondly, according to the growth habit of the potato, choose meteorological factors which effect potato yields preliminarily. Thirdly, use same coefficient panel model to find the relationship between meteorological factors and meteorological yields of each climatic area. Fourthly, forecast meteorological factors by using Markov stochastic model, and simulate fluctuation interval and probability of meteorological yields when meteorological factors fluctuate through computer simulation. Finally, put forward some research conclusions and policy suggestions.The whole thesis includes five parts. The first chapter is the introduction. In the introduction, I clarify the research base and the route of the thesis.The second parts,with weather factors like average temperature, rainfall and so on as index, All the weather station will be divided in to three parts according their’s Climatic conditions which is named the first areas,the second areas and the third areas. Comparing to the first areas, the average temperature of the first and the third areas is higher. The Light intensity and rainfall s an increasing tendency, from the first areas to the third.The third is mainly discussing the Meteorological factors on the impact of atmosphere crop.First, couputin the trend crop with HP filtering method and get atmosphere crop.Second,choosing the main index according to potato’s normal habit of growth,and studying the relationships using the panel data model.The forth parts firstly forecasted the value of the weather factors which have a notable impact on potatoes production in five years in every areas,with Markov chain. And, Simulations by computer forecasted the value of the atmosphere crop. Simulations results shows good stable in first and third areas, and big fluctuations in Second areas.Research of this paper is composed of the following conclusions:Average temperature has important influence on potato yields among 4 potato-growth periods-germination, seedling, stems and leaves and tuberization in three climatic areas of Hubei province; Rainfall has important influence on potato yields among 3 potato-growth periods-germination, seedling, stems and leaves, but that of three climatic regions on potato yields in the tuberization period has shown a certain degree of inconsistency, the correlation between rainfall and meteorological yields in the first climatic area is significant positive, that of the second and third are negative; Among three climatic areas, active accumulated temperature exceeding 10℃and meteorological yields have shown significant positive correlation. At the first three periods of potato-growth, daily range doesn’t significantly influence meteorological yields. In the tuberization period, daily range impacts meteorological yields significantly.Based on the research conclusions, in order to increase potato outputs effectively and guarantee food security, three suggestions are put forward. First, strengthen weather forecasting and disaster forecasting, adjustment potato production time appropriately; Second, increase water facilities, guarantee the demand of water during potato-growth period; Third, strengthen research on variety improvement of potato and technical training.