Geographical Mix Of The Main Agro-meteorological Disasters In Jilin Province, Regularity And Forecasting

Jilin Province is one of the important commodity product base in China, but one or several kinds of nature disaster are happened, which include drought, flood, low temperature cold damage, frost injury, hail and gale disaster. That interfere the normal agricultural yield and restrict the steady and sustaining development of commodity product base in Jilin Province. Regional combinational law of the main agricultural meteorological disaster is summarized through analyse three main agricultural meteorological disaster and their types, characteristic and regional distribution in Jilin Province. And forecast the trend of drought, flood and low temperature cold damage. All the purpose is to provide the scientific basis for disaster prevention and control in accordance with local condition.The whole thesis consists of three parts.Firstly, we establish the meteorological disaster database of Jilin Province and deduce the statistic frequency of the main meteorological disaster on the base of choosed meteorological disaster index. The spatial distribution law and time variation of drought, flood and low temperature cold damage are concluded with the GIS technology.Secondly, by analysis the spatial distribution law and temporal variation of the main meteorological disaster, we draw the dynamic and static regional combinational law of the main meteorological disaster using the methods of systemic cluster analysis, Markov Chain and CilS technology.Thirdly, we choose Markov Chain and GM(1, 1) Model of the gray system forecast on the base of analysis all kinds of forecast methods, and check out its reliability. Markov Chain is suitable for short-term forecast of great capacity sample data sequence, but gray system forecast method is suitable for medium-term forecast of few capacity sample data sequence.