Establishment Of Classical Swine Fever Risk Assessment Model On Scale Pig Farm

Swine fever is one of the major infectious diseases that currently threaten the pigindustry and cause huge economic losses every year. At present, although mostmedium and small scale pig farms have epidemic prevention awareness, they oftendon’t focus on key points and don’t know how to prevent occurrence of the diseaseeffectively, at the same time, the lack of an effective method of animal disease riskassessment makes the pig industry always vulnerable and passively in front ofepidemics attack. Pig farm owners urgently need simple and easy ways which guidethem to inspect and evaluate the prevention and control effect of swine fever bythemselves. This study, on the basis of researching and determining factors that impactswine fever spread, learn reasonable principles of various risk analysis, to establish aLarge scale Farms Swine Fever Risk Assessment with simple and convenient operationfeatures in order to evaluate the epidemic prevention and control ability of pig farms,that facilitate pig farm owners to carry out risk management and experience exchange.This thesis mainly focuses on the following aspects:1. In order to clarify the current epidemiological laws of swine fever and status ofcurrent scale farms, this subject study swine fever strain infection and verifyimmunization of scale pig farms in Henan province. By using RT-PCR method andGram Stain method to detect virulent antigens and bacterial infection based on403pigsamples from around many pig farms in Henan Province, to analyze infection andprevalence of swine fever in Henan；Taking comprehensive prevention and controlmeasures for swine fever positive pig farms and make further detection for pig farmswhich already carry out measures but no apparent effect. The result shows that:1.High prevalence of swine fever in Henan Province;2. the average detection rate ofswine fever virus is28.29%; Bacterial infection, accounting for26.13%of the total positive samples of swine fever virus; there are various degrees of mixed infectionamong blue-ear disease, circovirus disease and swine fever; Through this survey foundthat comprehensive prevention and control within scale pig farms in Henan is notstrong and not workable, the most farm owners can’t catch the disease prevention keypoints, therefore blind prevention is very common.2.This study, based on field investigation, experience&judgment, Delphi expertadvice, expert evaluation, risk matrix analysis and other methods, identify the riskfactors for swine fever incidence in large-scale pig farms; using pairwise comparisonsand hierarchy analytic process, to calculate the combined weight coefficients ofvarious risk factors, including risk analysis and numerical methods, and initiallyestablished the foot-and mouth disease risk assessment model of large scale pig farms.Selecting10scale farms that have occurred swine fever epidemic make fieldapplication experiments with risk assessment model, revise and perfect the indexsystem according to results of the risk warning, and finally to establish a riskassessment model of large scale pig farms. In this risk assessment model, there are41risk factors, which can be grouped into10major items,39ordinary items and2pivotalitems; Scale pig farms swine fever risk assessment model established in this study canmake a scientific early warning.3. This subject by using computer technology creates a simple and convenientautomatic data processing model forms to simplify data calculation process, thatgreatly save the time required by risk assessment establishment, as well as supplysimple and scientific means for actual application of risk assessment model.