Study On The Technology Diffusion Process Of Soil Testing And Fertilizer Recommendation In Agriculture

Nutrient enrichment has become increasingly severe in most of lake river basins of China, and excessive chemical fertilizer uses is proved to be one key source of large amount of nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. Since the first national wide introduction of agricultural soil testing and fertilizer recommendation in2005, a significant effect of fertilizer control is without doubt acknowledged. In this context, we conducted a study aiming at the wheat and grain production sector, where a multi-agent based simulation is adopted to model the technology diffusion process of agricultural soil testing and fertilizer recommendation. The farmer household decision norms are thoroughly considered during the simulation and the criteria a farmer use when adopting the technique is studied. Data comes from small scale field survey and questionnaires, but random data is produced in NetLogo to make the simulation smoothly run. And then, by way of sensitivity analysis, factors impacting the innovation diffusion process are specifically considered. What is more, we also include a policy optimization design, where adding remedy and increasing production price are studied. Overall, this study could be a pilot in China’s environmental policy evaluations, especially for nonpoint source management, and meanwhile try to find a way to fulfill and promote the soil testing and fertilizer recommendation to a larger extent.After a theoretical study, model design, model simulation, analysis and discussion of four closely connected research phases, the study formed conclusions as follows:(1) Farmers’ decision-making rationaleIn this study, the farmers’ decision-making only refers to that whether farmers change their habits of fertilization in accordance to soil testing and fertilizer redommedation technology, which mostly is the highest crop yield per hectare of nitrogen fertilizer. The results show that in the face of new technologies such as soil testing and redommedation technology, China’s grain farmers have two main decision-making mode, which are innovative determination and net income determination. Meanwhile, the scale of agricultual land also havie certain impact during this process.(2) Validation of the multi-agent modelAccording to the pilot fertilization technology to Meili Town (Jiangsu Province) of2003, we designed the baseline scenario. As the simulation results obtained by the10rounds with10cycles every round, Meili Town, the actual adoption of the technology and the end of2012as comparason, and then verify the validity and accuracy of the design NetLogo multi-agent simulation model. The comparative analysis of the results shows that the simulation results obtained with the end of2012Meili Town situation, the actual situation is basically the same, about80%of large farmers and30%of retail farmers to adopt soil testing and fertilizer technology. Through the baseline scenario simulation proved the validity of the accuracy of the model and the simulation results, to some extent, to achieve the purpose of the model validation.(3) Impact of number of scale farmersThree different number of scale farmers scenarios simulation study results indicate that in the innovation category distribution as well as the size of the large farmers remain unchanged under the premise of, on the one hand, the increase in the number of large farmers, will significantly enhance the adoption of soil testing and fertilizer technology in the entire World total amount of arable land Patch (Patches Innovs). The large increase in the number of farmers, on the other hand, has a more significant role in promoting the spread of the scope and coverage of the innovative technology, especially when a large enough number of large (Scale130) the adoption of innovative technologies proportion of arable land Patch (Patches Innovs Ratio) about90%. (4) Impact of the lands of scale farmersThree different lands of scale farmers scenarios simulation study results suggest that the premise remains the same in the innovation category distribution as well as a large number of farmers, on the one hand, the increase in large-scale, will significantly improve throughout the World adoption of soil testing and fertilizer technologydegree of spread, more arable land Patch adoption of this innovative technology (Patches Innovs). On the other hand, the increase in the scale of large farmers will significantly improve the dissemination of innovative technologies, and upgrading large number of farmers to enhance the scale of large farmers for improving the role of soil testing and fertilizer technology dissemination is relatively low.(5) Impact of innovation types distributionThree different innovation types distribution scenarios simulation study results show that, in a large number of farmers and their scale is held constant, on the one hand, due to the three scenarios, the number of farmers and farmland Patch same degree of spread between scenario (the absolute number) increase or decrease with the increase of the transmission range (relative number) is exactly the same. On the other hand, showed a significant positive correlation between the degree of farmers groups, degree of innovation and the level of soil testing and fertilizer technology dissemination farmers groups, the higher the degree of innovation, the extent and scope of innovation and technology diffusion; compared with Innovators words, changes in the proportion of Laggards have a more significant impact on the spread of innovative technologies in farmers groups.(6) Impact of adding adopting remedyThe one hand, the accession of the subsidy mechanism for enhancing the spread of the adoption of soil testing and fertilizer technology has a role in promoting low subsidy standards (500Yuan/hm2for example) almost no effect, but higher in the subsidy standards (2000Yuan/hm2for example)when more apparent. The other hand, the subsidy mechanism for reducing farmers adopted the decision to change, solid soil testing and fertilizer technology adoption of the effect of the decision-making has a very significant role.(7) Impact of increasing production priceOn the one hand, enhance crop selling price significantly inhibited the spread of the adoption of soil testing and fertilizer technology, especially the first rise in the price decline (from1.2Yuan/kg up to1.3Yuan/kg) is very obvious,subsequent impact is basically negligible. More number of arable Patch crop prices, on the other hand, enhance the inhibitory effect of the adoption of innovative technologies for large farmers was significantly higher than the retail farmers and large farmers "responsible", and thus the economic benefits are more sensitive to closely related.