Research On Social Credibility Based On Multi-Agent Modeling Methodology

Credibility, as a normal word we often hear, is a necessary prerequisite for a person to establish himself in society, an important requirement for an enterprise to operate in a market, a keystone for a country to gain status around the world. In our country with a long history, credibility plays a significant role in Confucian ethics and human behaviors. For thousands years, being honesty has been a basic qualification in economic morals.Nowadays, market economy and economic globalization are expanding widely and making our life more efficient. However, simultaneously they also bring about many immoral phenomena such as practice fraud, counterfeit, swindle and cheat. Pragmatism and utilitarianism are generating. These lead to more mutual suspicion between people and strict precautions against each other. As a fact, credibility is undergoing its crisis. The moral encounters a serious challenge than ever. The loss of credibility also constitutes a serious impediment to building a harmonious society. Facing this grim situation, it is necessary to pay attention to the problem of losing credibility. And the research of it has great significance.Losing credibility is a social problem that occurs in a long-term evolutionary progress, and the social system is a complex giant system which has a feature of nonlinear and self-organizing. Because of these, it is difficult and not proper to research it only by using traditional mathematical method. While with the development of computer, modeling simulation technology is widely used in social problem research. The agent model with very simple program can be built to simulate the individual in the social system, and many agents can interact in the computer so that abundant emergent properties can be constructed from bottom up which can be used to explain the principles and phenomena of the real social system. Through Agent-based modeling and analysis of the agent model, we try to study the problem of credibility. The main work of this thesis includes the following three parts:(1) We use the classic prisoner’s dilemma as the basis Game Model. Taking into account the reality of human personality, we made a little improvement:when people make their choices, they base on certain probability to choose their own behavior, that is to say it is a hybrid strategy game model. Through the establishment of a Multi-Agent model in computer to create a virtual social environment, a definition and measurement of credibility is described. And how the individual credibility influences the social credibility is reflected in the model.(2) Combined with Evolutionary Game Theory and Complex adaptive system, we build an Agent-Based computer model between enterprises and supervision departments. Under bounded rationality, we analyze the evolutionary equilibrium of the model. Through case study in different parameters, the corresponding simulation results are discussed respectively.(3) In the last chapter, we give the detailed construct process of the models we used, including the structure of Agents, the learning rules and some important source codes.Finally, a summary is given to point out the insufficiency and improvement of our future research. Hope this thesis could have some certain reference significance in the study of social credibility, especially in the Agent-based modeling.