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Civil Servant's Decision Based On The Theory Of Behavioral Decision Deviation Measurement And Intervention Study

Posted on:2013-04-08Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:C Q RaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:2245330374471558Subject:Applied Psychology
Abstract/Summary:
Decision-making is one of the most complex forms of human thinking, in modern management science, the biggest problem is how to make an efficient decision under uncertainty.Traditional decision theory is based on "rational" assumptions that in the decision-making process, decision makers can have all the information, to measure and compare the effectiveness of each program, pursuit utility maximization. But the real decision-making process, due to the limited capacity of decision-makers of cognitive ability, perception, memory capacity, information processing, the complexity of the environment, policy makers can not grasp the complete information for decision-making, only use information in their own hands within the pursuit of the rational. Based on this, Simon proposed the concept of "bounded rationality". Behavioral decision theory is based on "bounded rationality" assumption.Because decision-makers is the "bounded rationality", they can not be completely rational in decision-making process. Decision-makers pursue the satisfaction of their hearts; it will inevitably lead to irrational decision-making bias. The civil servants is "bounded rationality", they also bound to a decision-making deviation.In this study, through extensive literature access, it can collect questions to make the decision-making questionnaire.Questionnaire A internal consistency reliability is0.651, questionnaire B internal consistency reliability is0.672, a copy of the letter is0.896, and questionnaire reliability is good. The KMO value of questionnaire A is0.613, and questionnaire B is0.661.The factor analysis extracted three factors, the collection of information bias factor, the edit of information bias factor, the assessment of information bias factor. The construct validity is good. Using the Decision-making questionnaire A to exam150MPA students at Northwestern University, the results show that there is a deviation in the information collecting, editing and assessment phase. The total score of decision bias and the three stages are not significantly different in gender, age, and professional factors. Through the classroom, the decision-making scenario simulation and counseling, the decision-making bias is intervened.Three weeks after the intervention; using the Decision-making questionnaire B assesses the intervention effects of MPA students. The results show that civil servants’decision-making bias score is significantly lower (p<0.05), information editing stage score is significantly lower (p<0.05), the information collecting phase, information assessment phase score is not significantly different. After the intervention, the total score (p<0.01) and the information-collecting stage score (p<0.001) is significantly different between the Civil servants and university students. There are no significant differences in the information editing and assessment stage.The main conclusions of this article:First, this study establish a "Decision-making Ability Questionnaire", it includes three factors, information collecting, editing and assessment. The questionnaire has good reliability and validity;Second, The civil servants have significant decision-making bias in the information collecting, editing and assessment stages;Third, the decision-making bias score is no significant differences in the demographic variables of age, gender, profession;Fourth, classroom teaching, decision-making scenario simulation, and counseling can effectively reduce the decision-making bias, and enhance rational decision-making capacity of the civil servants;Fifth, compared with groups of students, it is more different to intervent the decision-making behavior of civil servants.
Keywords/Search Tags:behavioral decision-making, decision-making bias, intervention, Civil servants
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