A Preliminary Calculation On The Sex Ratios Of0-year-olds In The Past10Years In Hebei Province Based On The Complete Population Database

Based on the real time data recorded at24o’ clock on December31st,2009from theOverall Population Database of Hebei Province, we are to analyze the population aged from0to9, and acquire the respective numbers of age-specific population as well as the number ofsex-specific population. According to the mortality rates of0to9-year-olds released by theFifth National Census in Hebei Province, which are age-specific and gender-specific, wework backward and get the respective data of sex ratios of the population aged0in HebeiProvince in the years from2000to2009. Results show that the sex ratio of age0group ofpopulation in Hebei in2000is116.84, which is higher than the datum114.07that released bythe Fifth National Census in Hebei Province. Supposing that the third and higher order birthswere underreported in the Fifth National Census, the revised sex ratio of age0group in theFifth National Census would increase from114.07to115.59, according to the order-specificinformation from the Overall Population Database of Hebei Province. This indicates that thesex ratio released by the Fifth National Census in Hebei Province is relatively low. And themajor cause is that the second and higher order births were not or under reported attemptingto circumvent the national family planning policy. According to the Overall PopulationDatabase, the estimated sex ratios of age0group in the years from2004to2009diverge a lotwith one another, and are obviously lower than each of those in the calendar year from2000to2003. This illustrates that there are some unreliable individual cases in the OverallPopulation Database because of the underreporting of birth population whom the nationalfamily planning policy forbids. When children are old enough to start school, theunderreported population over5years old will gradually appear. Among the sex ratios of thelast10years estimated according to the Overall Population Database at the end of2009, thoseof2000to2003are relatively credible. There are apparent regional variations in the estimatedcity/town-specific sex ratios of age0group in Hebei Province, with those of Handan, Xingtai,Cangzhou, etc. seriously high. By IDW interpolation method, the town-specific sex ratios ofage0group execute interpolation. Found that similar to the107contour and the mountainousborder of Hebei Province. Among the estimated birth-order specific sex ratios of age0groupin Hebei Province in the last ten years, the sex ratios of firstborn children are at the normal level, and those of second children are relatively high with a downtrend, while those of higherbirth order are abnormally high with an continuous uptrend. It has been found that we canmonitor the real-time sex ratios of region-specific as well as birth-order-specific age0groupby making use of the Overall Population Database. In other words, the Overall PopulationDatabase is a powerful supporting platform for surveying a population’s sex ratio at birth.