Oil Consumption And Co₂ Emissions From Automobile Sector In Major Regions Of China: Present And Future

The rapid growth of Chinese automobile stock is bringing tremendous challenge on the oil security and carbon dioxide （CO₂） emission. Jing-Jin-Ji, Yangzi River Delta and Pearl River Delta Regions are the most populous and developed regions in China. Learning the trends of the automobile stock, related energy consumption and CO₂ emissions for these regions could provide reference to the government for making policies aiming in energy saving and CO₂ emissions reduction. Gompertz Function and linear equation were employed to project the stock of light duty passenger vehicle （LDPV） and other automobiles, respectively. The development scenario and fuel economy of conventional vehicles, electric-powered vehicles （hybrid, plug-in hybrid, pure electric） and bio-fuels （bio-ethanol, bio-diesel） were examined.The results shows that, automobile from Jing-Jin-Ji, Yangzi River Delta and Pearl River Delta Regions consumed 15 Mt, 17Mt, 11 Mt fuel. Without considering the advanced propulsion/fuel systems, In 2030, automobile fuel consumption in Jing-Jin-Ji Region may reach 37-44 Mt, with CO₂ emissions at 120-140 Mt. Automobile fuel consumption in Yangzi River Delta Region may reach 49-60 Mt, with CO₂ emissions at 160-190 Mt. Automobile fuel consumption in Pearl River Delta Region may reach 33-40 Mt, with CO₂ emissions at 100-120 Mt. For these three regions, peak value of fuel consumption may be reached in 2025-2028, 2021-2022, and 2023-2025, at the values of 38-45 Mt, 57-68 Mt, and 36-61 Mt, respectively.The penetration of electric-powered vehicles and bio-fuels may reduce the automobile oil consumption and CO₂ emissions effectively. Setting the high BAU scenario as the basecase scenario, in 2030, low and high electric-powered vehicle scenarios may make fuel savings of 6-12 Mt, 10-18 Mt and 6-11 Mt for Jing-Jin-Ji, Yangzi River Delta and Pearl River Delta Regions, respectively. Low and high bio-fuels scenarios may make fuel savings of 2.4-5.6 Mt, 3.2-7.6 Mt, and 2.2-5.1 Mt for those three regions, respectively. The combination of high electric-powered vehicle scenario and high bio-fuel scenario may reduce the fuel consumption in these regions for 40%, 43% and 41% in 2030, respectively. This combination may also bring forward the year of peak fuel consumption for 5, 2 and 3 years. The peak fuel consumption demand may be reduced by 21%, 14% and 18%, respectively. The proportional reduction in CO₂ emissions is similar to that in fuel consumption.In 2007, Chinese automobile oil consumption is 115 Mt. Without considering the advanced propulsion/fuel systems, automobile oil consumption may grow to 377-439 Mt by 2030, with CO₂ emissions at 1,190-1,380 Mt. The combination of high electric-powered vehicles and high bio-fuels scenarios could reduce the automobile oil consumption to 249 Mt in 2030, with a reduction of 43.3%. Under this scenario, the peak value of automobile oil consumption may appear in 2024, at the value of 287 Mt. This could control the oil import dependence under 63%. In the baseline scenario, the oil import dependence may reach 76% in 2030. ?...