Dynamic Simulation Study Of The Market Size Of Blade Electric Vehicles,Hybrid Electric Vehicles And Fuel Vehicles

This paper will forecastthe market scale of three-type-cars automobile industry in the future based on system dynamic.With the increasingly pressing problems of environment and energy caused by traditional fuel vehicles, green car industry has been identified as one of strategic emerging industries in China. In the light of development level of current key technology in automotive industry, there will exist three kind of cars in future automotive industry as follows: pure electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles. It plays significant role in automotive industry to analyze the market scale correctly. Therefore, in order to promote the rational and orderly development of automotive industry, the market scale of three kind of cars should be forecast reasonably, the tenure of three kind of cars analyzed dynamically and mechanism of key factors affecting the market scale figured carefully.Research on the market scale of pure electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles was conducted in this paper. Firstly, the development status of new energy vehicles at home and abroad was discussed. Based on system dynamics theory, the dynamic model of the three kind of automobile market scale was established and verified. Then, the main state variables was simulated with the dynamic model, and the key factors affecting the market scale of three different cars was analyzed based on sensitivity analysis.From the dynamical simulation with the new model, the variation of market scale of three different cars was obtained, and development speed as well as market scale were forecast. Finally, several practical advices were put forward, providing theoretical basis to adjust policies of automobile industry and allocate resources reasonably, also offering references to make production plan.