System Dynamics Research On Coordination Of Guangxi Regional Logistics And Economy

The development of regional economy and regional logistics complement each other. Economic development level determines logistics demand level and capital inflow scale. Meanwhile, logistics facilitate economic operation as producer services and stimulate rapid economic growth. However, logistics and economy could not develop coordinately in nature. Today under the situation of market economy, government plays an important role in coordinating them as the investor, planner, guider of logistics industry. In Guangxi, development of economy and logistics are both lagging behind that in developed area in China. Many problems exist in Guangxi’s logistics industry such as insufficient domestic demand, unreasonable investment structure, etc, which requests policy interference and energetic support from government, thereby promoting Guangxi’s logistics and economic development efficiently. This paper seeks to find the problems in Guangxi’s logistics and their causes by using system simulation method , and then puts forward relevant policy suggestions for governmental sectors to realize the leaping development of Guangxi’s economy.Based on above, the article first analyze the present situation of Guangxi’s logistics demand and supply through industry distribution, Guangxi’s trade with ASEAN, transport infrastructure and transport structure angles. Then examine the relationship between Guangxi’s logistics and economics using econometrics method like ADF test, Granger test, co-integration analysis with Guangxi 1980-2009 data as sample. Based on this, system dynamics model of coordination of Guangxi’s regional logistics and economy is built and simulation for Guangxi 2000-2020 logistics and economic operation is carried out. The results show that alternatives that lead logistics and economics develop in coordination may be to focus on expanding logistics’domestic demand, planning investment in logistics reasonably, training logistics’talents vigorously, etc. if investing and programming are divorced form reality, serious consequences may arise. That is imbalance in demand and supply of logistics, idle logistics infrastructure and higher recessive cost, all of this may lead to the deficiency of logistics’development vigor and restriction of economic sustainable development. Guangxi should seize the opportunity of Beibu Gulf Economic Zone construction and ASEAN free trade area’s running to develop logistics industry , so as to support economic development reliably.