Statistics And Analysis On RMB Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

China’s economy maintained a rapid growth in recent years, under the background of doublesurplus in the current account and capital account, the ever surging current account surplus andforeign exchange reserves, the discussion tends to be intensified with the question of adjusting theRMB exchange rate and the reform of RMB exchange rate regime or not in the context of domesticacademic and policy authorities. What should be the reasonable extent of the Equilibrium exchangerate? In recent years this has attracted the attention of scholars both at home and abroad, and hasaccumulated a large number of research results.Firstly this article make the definition of the core concept relating exchange rate.and brieflyintroduce the classical Western equilibrium exchange rate theory. And then, make a statistic analysisabout the process and results derived from PPP、BEER and FEER,all three theories are in widelyspread use. The results derived from the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) approachand the Penn effect regression are used to illustrate the sensitivity of misalignment estimate toassumptions of the key parameters in a given model, sampling uncertainty, serial correlationadjustment, and data revision. It is shown that both the sign and the magnitude of a misalignmentestimate could be dramatically affected by these factors.Finally, with the comparison and summary of the three widely used theory of the equilibriumexchange rate, we try to determine and improve the theory of the equilibrium exchange rate andmake a tentative explore about the future of the RMB equilibrium exchange rate theory...