The Research On Evolution Model And Risk Spread Model Of Complex Industrial Chain Networks

The rapid development of global economy leads to the ever-close relationship betweencorporations, which makes them involved in competition as parts of industrial chains but individuals.It’s obvious that competition between industrial chains substitutes for that between corporations.However, due to the ever-close relationship, the risk took with certain corporation in the chain couldspread and have bad influence for its cooperators, even lead to the collapse of the whole chain andthreaten the harmony of society.Our study firstly reviews abundant literature and summarizes the concept and formation of risk,in addition to basic parameters, structure models and spread models of complex networks. Based onanalysis of the characteristic and topological structure of industrial networks, we combine BA modeland NW model and propose formation arithmetic of industrial network under the circumstances ofdifferentiation of types of corporations. Based on these, we simulate the formation of industrialnetworks by means of Matlab and prove the effectiveness of the model in comparison with the surveyresult of solar industrial chain. Then, we propose risk spread model in industrial chain and comparespread results under circumstances of different structure of networks, risk source corporation, and selfrepair parameters. At last, the methods of building early warning system of corporation risk,strengthening the risk management ability of essential corporations and establishing risk-sharemechanism are raised to efficiently control risk spread.