Enterprise Foreign Exchange Risk Prevention Decision-making Support System

RMB appreciation pressure has been increasing，since the international financialcrisis. The calling about the appreciation of RMB has been keeping in internationalsociety. However, the foreign funds detaching leads the RMB depreciation temporarily,which makes the trend of RMB more uncertainty and increase the exchange risk ofenterprise foreign more difficult to control. So this issue, how to help enterprises toavoid effectively exchange rate risk, has become a major one in academia and business.For this issue, the paper puts the enterprise profit maximization as the target andanalyzes quantitatively the exchange risk, the cost and benefit of risk preventionmeasures so as to help enterprise exchange risk prevention under the decision-makingsystem effectively.Firstly, the fluctuations of RMB as the background, the summary of the methods ofthe current exchange rate forecasts and risk prevention at home and abroad as theresearch foundation, the author works out the thinking about enterprise foreignexchange risk prevention decision support system establishment and key problems.Secondly, analyzes the related factors that affect the exchange rate using the Factoranalysis method, summarizes the key factor which influences the change of exchangerate. Then, the author uses the least square algorithm to solve the exchange rateestimation model for the date of25months (2009,7~2011,7). After the estimation ofexchange rate using the exchange rate estimation model, the paper follows thisthinking--“foreign exchange risk avoidance”“foreign exchange risk reduction”“foreign exchange risk elimination”, analyzes quantitatively the cost and benefit of thepreventive measures, tries to give the decisions-making framework in the risk ofexchange rate prevention gives some instructions for foreign trade practice ofenterprises.Based on the up researches, this paper sets up the complete foreign exchange risk prevention decision-making support system and explore and use the VBScriptlanguage systematically；Microsoft SQLServer2000was used as background database.Finally, the construction of foreign exchange risk decision-making support systemwith operating easily and friendly interface aims to help enterprise can be exchangerisk prevention easily in the decision-making system.