Price Prediction Research Of Housing Stock Based On Supply And Demand Ratio

The stock house market of Xi’an has drawn much attention since2002when it wasreally started, and it is playing a more and more important role in the real estate market.Therefore, knowing the present situation and development feature of the stock housemarket in Xi’an, the development tendency of supply/demand and price and theirrelation is quite significant for the government to make policies and for developers tomake investment decisions, also for both parties in the market to make decisions. Thispaper makes the following conclusion by predicting price of stock houses in Xi’an.1. This paper analyzes the present situation and feature of the stock house market inXi’an, and points out the factors that would influence the stock house supply, such aspolicy, price, agency, acquisition cost, house sellers’ expectation etc, as well as thefactors that may influence the stock house demand, such as policy, price, income andexpense, urban population, family structure, living area per capita and so on.2. This paper makes a prediction of the stock house supply and demand in Xi’anfrom2012to2014with the aid of grey-linear regression combined model and multiplelinear regression combined model. As a result, the supply and demand of the stockhouse will increase simultaneously in the following three years, but the increasingdegree of supply will be less than that of demand.3. The relation ratio between the stock house price and its supply/demand amountsto0.913and forms a quadratic function, resulting from the stock house marketdevelopment and policy influence.4. Based on supply and demand ratio, this paper predicts the price of the stockhouses in Xi’an will reduce due to present control policy. Meanwhile, in order to keep the stock house price varying among the reasonable range, this paper suggests suchpolicies as different interest ratio, flexible debt, taxation adjustment and stabilization ofland control.