The Empirical Test Of Macro-control Policies’ Influence On The Real Estate Price

In recent years, China’s real estate and commercial housing sales price continued torise, this is far beyond the capacity of ordinary people. In order to curb the rapid pricerise, government has published a series of macro-control measures. Whether these realestate control policy has effect on real estate prices and how is the extent, this paper willuse the event study method to study.This paper collected housing sales price index data and real estate listed company’sshare price data, had an empirical test of the effect of the related real estate controlpolicy respectively. First illustrates the research background and significance; thenoutlined the domestic and foreign real estate development and regulation; thendescribed the principles and procedures of the event study method in detail. The mainpart of this paper are two empirical: the first empirical selected nine major citieshousing sales price index data, the result is that “The notice to stabilize housing pricespractically” which The State Council promulgated on March26,2005failed to curbhousing price. Many cities’ housing prices were still rising fast. While in2007, thehousing prices come down significantly along with the central bank raised interest ratesfive times. The second empirical selected60listed real estate companies’ share pricesdate in the stock market, tested the effect of the policy “Notice of the State Council curbthe rapid housing price rising resolutely in some cities” which promulgated on January26,2011.The result showed that housing price was suppressed significantly inshort-term, and the test result was significant, but it did not last long in long-term, priceshave rebounded. The same time, this paper studies the listed real estate companyCOFCO Property as a case study, from its financial situation and stock price trend.Finally, according to the empirical results and combining with China’s actual situation,this paper put forward policy recommendations on improving the real estate marketinformation system, regulating the land and real estate market order, strengtheningcapital, financial market regulation and supervision.