Material Flow Analysis Of Automobile Industry In China

Recent years, the automobile industry is playing a more and more important part in accelerating the economy, increasing the employment, promoting the domestic demand. However, the increasing number of the production and the ownership enhance the material input, fuel consumption, automobile emission and scrapping number. And this heavy the natural environmental stress too. Therefore, it becomes an urgent problem to advance the industrialization of new energy automobile and reduce the energy consumption and emission of traditional automobile vigorously.Based on the approach of material flow analysis (MFA), the MFA frame on the automobile industry system in China is established. And the material input, material output, circular material in the production stage, using stage and scrapping stage is quantized and analyzed. Then the unsustainable problems are found in the process of the circulation of materials. The automobile ownership in future is forecasted by the Logistic growth model, and the fuel consumption and emission scenario is predicted based on the predicted value of the ownership. Finally, the quantized policies on fuel consumption, automobile emission and scrapping are suggested.The main results we get through the research of the MFA and prediction:About scrapping and recycling:there are less than 40% of the scrapping vehicles are scrapped by official procedure only. And there will be more than 200 million vehicles get into the scrapping limit, and this data will increase at a speed of 23% every year. Therefore, the government must take a quick action to scrap and recycle the old vehicles effectively; About vehicle ownership:the vehicle ownership in China will reach a rapid increasing period from 2020 to 2050; About fuel consumption:on premise of the ownership of battery electric vehicle and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle get 500 million, hybrid electric vehicle get 4500 million until 2020, then the fuel consumption level in our nation can probably catch up with the European union level; About emission:the China stage V emission regulation should be set to perfom in 2017-2022.