Research On Biofuel-Bioethanol Development And Its Impacts On Corn Market In China

Since the new millennium, with the international oil prices increasing sharply,energy crisiscontinuously upgrading and ecological environment getting serious,Biomass has beenunprecedentedly concerned and actively supported by all the countries in the world because of theoutstanding advantages of renewability and environmental protection,and biofuels development hasbecome an important direction for the development and utilization of new energy in many countriesincluding China.But in recent years,with the rapid development of biofuel-ethanol that was producedby corn as the main raw material has brought some new problems of corn market.Corn is not only themain material of ethanol production,but also is a major source of feed and industrial important rawmaterial.The expansion of the ethanol industry will certainly has an negative effect on domestic cornmarket,then will threaten our food security.Therefore,the study is of great significance on the effect ofcorn market with the development of biofuel ethanol under this special background.This paper first analyzed the development process and goal programming of major biofuelethanol producers at abroad,and focused on the status and future trends of biofuel development inChina;then conducted comprehensive review of the tendency in changes in our country’s corn supplyand demand market,focused on the analysis of bio-ethanol development on our corn supply-demandand the structure of consumption demand,Based on the review and analysised above,this studyforecast corn production and demand under the current conditions.Based on the precdiction,theory ofprice elasticity and partial equilibrium,this paper applicated scenario analyses and set three differentgoals of fuel ethanol development in2020,and simulated the possible changes of domestic corn priceand the structure of consumption demand under those scene schemes.Finally proposed relevant policysuggestions based on the simulation results.The following conclusions were drawn from the researchin this thesis:(1)In order to ease energy crisis,reduce greenhouse gase emissions and promote regionaleconomic development,the main foreignal countries have made different policies to encourage biofueldevelopment,but the rapid development of bio-ethanol which is made of corn as raw matrial has takenan important impact on domastic corn market.(2)The result of predicting corn supply and demandunder the current biomass policy environment with time series models showed that the future cornmarket of our country would keep the balance of supply and demand.(3)According to the results ofthe three corn fuel ethanol development scale schemes,developing bio-ethanol would have someimpact on corn price and the structure of consumption demand, But the proportion of the impact isvery small, so ethanol of our country has certain potential development in the future,but consideringthe advantage of national resources,ethanol development structure and food security,We should take apath of non-grain.