The Demand Analysis Of Corn In China

Corn is one of the three major grain crops in the world, because the output of corn are rich, the use value of corn are high, and corn is also renewable, so corn industry is called"golden industry".and it's taken a prominent role in China's grain economy. In recent years, the corn demand is increased rapidly, corn demand becomes the guidance of the corn price gradually, now corn prices and corn yield are both growing, This situation has a strong influence on China's corn future production and future consumption. so the main content of this paper is about the corn demand. according to this study, we can arrange China corn production in market-oriented and adjust the future consumption.In this paper, firstly we make summary about the domestic and foreign scholars'research about China's corn demand. and make analyze to the features of corn consumption structure according to the 1980-2008 China's corn production data, then we conclude that corn main demand include corn edible consumption, feeding consumption and industrial consumption, the radio of the three parts'consumption than the total corn consumption is about 97%, therefore we make our research focus on qualitative and quantitative analysis of corn consumption and the influence factors of these three demands, wo can find that the influence factors of the three requirements are different. At the same time, we use the grey relational analysis method to get the correlation degree about influence factors data to these different comsunption data. Get results as follows: the ratio of the urban grain consumption than the total grain consumption (UCCT), this factor is with the highest correlation of corn edible consumption; Livestock and poultry products price index(LPPI), this factor is with the highest correlation of corn forage consumption; corn starch price (Ps) is with the highest correlation of corn Industrial consumption.Secondly we estimates the elastic coefficient of the main influence factors to these three demand of corn, and we can find that the influence degree of the different demand types are different. Get results as follows: in price elasticity, the price elasticity of corn edible demand is 0.32, price elasticity of corn forage demand is 0.198, the price elasticity of corn industry demand is - 1.059, the elasticity of Livestock and poultry products price index to corn forage consumption is 0.482, the elasticity of corn starch prices to corn industry consumption is 0.543. income elasticity of corn edible demand and income elasticity of corn forage demand are also different, if income increase,the corn consumption structure will be affected, with the increase of income, the corn forage consumption will rise and the corn edible consumption will reduce. Total population is the main influence factor of corn edible consumption, its influence coefficient is 7.854, relative to the corn price and income factors, it has the biggest influence on corn edible consumption.Thirdly, In this paper, According to the three demand equation that we made before, we calculated the coming decade of corn edible consumption, corn forage consumption, corn industry consumption, seed and other consumption and the corn total consumption. The results of the study indicate that: in the future five years, corn total consumption Will smooth grow, after 2016, consumption remains stable. Then in combination with other scholars'analysis about corn supply forecast, we make the analysis of supply and demand balance about corn, the result shows that the coming decade the supply and demand balance about corn will waved around 0 line, but the oscillation range is not big, supply and demand are equal.Finally, we make text summarizes and based on the conclusion of this research to proposed several appropriate policy suggests, such as make appropriate subsidies for people of region where corn is the main food; prevent people's demand for Livestock and poultry products to decrease; strengthen the tracking research about corn industry development; establishing long-effect study mechanism of corn demand; relaxing national policy control for corn industry development and so on.