Study On Optimum Exploitation Scale Of China Oil And Natural Gas Under Uncertainty

As one of the world’s oil production, consumption and import big countries, in recentyears, China’s oil consumption is rising quickly, import volume is growing rapidly, and oilexternal dependence height also constantly rising; At the same time, China’s natural gasmarket has entered the mass stage of development, natural gas consumption grew by annualthe speed of two digit, with the increase in living standards, and people demand for cleanenergy, China’s natural gas demand will continue strong, the next few years domestic naturalgas supply and demand gap will be gradually increased. Under this situation, Optimalexploitation of oil and gas resources is the main problem of the sustainable development ofnon-renewable energy resources,however, the exploitation of oil and gas resources face somany uncertainties such as limited reserves, volatility price, uncertainty technology,sustainability environment and alternative resources that affect oil and gas exploitation andapplication. Therefore, full identification and quantitative analysis of the uncertainty factors,then build optimal exploitation scale of China oil and natural gas resources is very necessary.This thesis uses Economics, Control Theory, Optimization Theory, analysis the rationalscale exploitation of the oil and gas resources under uncertainty in China, the major researchand results are as follows:(1)This thesis analyzes the development status of China oil and gas resources, point outthe restriction of China oil and gas industry development, and analyzes China economy andsocial protection force of oil and gas resources.(2)Based on identification of uncertain conditions, the thesis analyzes the impact ofChina oil and natural gas resources exploitation under the uncertain factors, then combinateswith the theory of exhaustible resource exploitation path, we build the inter-temporaloptimization model of oil and gas exploitation, by the Hamilton function and the Lagrangemethod to calculate the expression of exploitation scale.(3)We conduct an empirical study on the scale of oil exploitation.By establishing the oil exploitation cost and oil price model, solving the parameters of the model, we use the VCvisual programming, Numerical Analysis method, simulate and predict China oilexploration scale under the constraints of a variety of uncertainties(4)According to the actual situation of China oil and gas exploitation, we propose thesuggestions of the rational development of oil and gas resources.The results of this thesis have important reference value on sustainable development andutilization of China oil and natural gas resources.