Study On The Management Mechanism And Decision Making For Materials Procurment In Large-Scale Project Under Uncertainty

This paper has a research on the procurement management of large scale project using many theories and methods such as project management,strategic management,operation management,system theory,game theory and information economics,incentive theory and optimization,mathematical modeling.It build a project procurement management framework for the uncertain environment and analyzed the management and operation mechanism.The paper also made a quantitative analysis for the decision problems in the procurement process.First of all,the paper analyses the environmental uncertainty for the large scale project procurement,summarizes the major problems.It Points out that the management process should be considered from the perspective of project's whole life cycle,and builds integration framework including information,resources,process,and organization.From the aspect of strategic planning,the procurement management should emphasizes the system evaluation and Feedback,and from the aspect of coordinated operation,it emphasizes the integration from process to resources then to organization,then from the aspect of performing and execution,it should pay attention to business optimization design.In addition,the paper interprets the form,path,condition,execution of the organizational integration mechanism,the key optimization problems of procurement operations such as suppliers,contracts,purchase quantity,procurement method and so on,and two-dimensional regulation mechanism based on dynamic entropy deviate entropy.Then,from three aspects,the paper analyses the Decision problem:Firstly,considering both the supplier with default risk and uncertain demand,this paper proposes a model for procurement decision based on the condition value-at-risk(CVaR)model.The impact on the procurement decision from the supplier's reliability,the parameter of risk of the project's purchaser,the price and the losing of opportunity is analyzed.Then it also addresses the problems faced by a manufacturer who deals with two suppliers who may default on their obligations to deliver order quantities at the end of a given production leading time,and analyses the relationship between the correlation of default and the order quantities.Finally,the paper builds a order splitting model considering supplier resilience and reliability.Secondly,for the problem of demand uncertainty in the process of engineering construction,capacity are reserved in the way of commitment to the price.The paper build dynamic game model when the is leader who decides the price and the supplier is the follower who decides the capacity.By considering the risk attitudes of the purchaser,it compares the decision under the risk-neutral and loss aversion.And the paper further extends the model to the random disturbance of demandThirdly,the large-scale construction project has an important task to promote the development of the native firm on the construction supply chain.The procurement of the strategic resource can stimulate the firm's innovation ability of technology,while it also result to the supply risk which include the increase of cost and postponement of supply.Based on principal-agent theory and Incentive theory,this paper designs a procurement contract based on the monetary transfer and cost when the supplier's information about cost and technology is private and the effort is unobservable.The results show that when the contract is chosen,the project company can identify the real technical information of the supply enterprises,and the contract can also encourage the enterprises to pay more efforts.