Decomposition Analysis And Scenario Prediction Of Carbon Intensity In China's Manufacturing Industry

Since the reform and opening up,China's industrial economy has achieved vigorous development,and it has also led to a sharp increase in energy consumption,which has caused great pressure on the environment.In order to achieve the emission reduction targets of “Made in China 2025”,the government have to implement energy conservation and emission reduction policies in a targeted manner to promote the coordinated development of the industrial economy and the environment.Therefore,fully identifying the drivers of changes in manufacturing carbon intensity and adopting reasonable and targeted measures to reduce emissions will be the key to low carbon development in manufacturing industry.Based on the advantages of production-theoretical decomposition analysis(PDA)method and index decomposition analysis(IDA)method,this paper constructs an integrated PDA-IDA decomposition framework.On this basis,the driving factors of manufacturing carbon intensity's the evolution trend in 1995-2015 are decomposed.Further,the contribution of 28 manufacturing sub-sectors to the effects of drivers is quantified.Then,based on Monte Carlo simulation technology,the future evolution trend of manufacturing carbon intensity in 2016-2025 is predicted.Results show that: the carbon intensity of manufacturing industry decreased year by year during the study period,with an average annual decline of 5.25%.Of which,heavy industry carbon intensity fell by 79.9%,while light industry carbon intensity fell by 82.9%.The potential energy intensity is the dominant factor in the decline of carbon intensity in the manufacturing industry.Its cumulative reduction of carbon intensity is 76.6%,followed by technological progress and industrial structure factors.While the energy carbon intensity and technical efficiency factors have not shown a significant role in promoting the decline.The impact of potential energy intensity mainly depends on the decline of potential energy intensity in heavy metal industries such as ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing,chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing,and non-metallic mineral products sub-sectors.At the same time,the main contributions of technological progress are the petroleum processing,coking and nuclear fuel processing industry,chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing,non-metallic mineral products and ferrous metal smelting industry.These sub-sectors are mainly based on heavy industry.This indicates that the focus of China's manufacturing energy conservation and emission reduction is effective regulation of heavy industry.Under the baseline scenario,the carbon emission of manufacturing industry showed a rapid growth trend,and the carbon intensity decreased slowly.Under the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced lowcarbon scenario,the carbon emission growth rate slowed down remarkably,and the carbon intensity decreased rapidly.The emission reduction targets of “Made in China 2025” can be successfully realized under the enhanced low-carbon scenario,which can be basically achieved under the low-carbon scenario,but difficult to achieve under the baseline scenario.Therefore,to lay the foundation for the smooth implementation of the “Made in China 2025” emission reduction targets,the government should continue to encourage and promote the development of manufacturing low-carbon technology,promote specialized division of labor and technical exchanges and cooperation between enterprises,strengthen support for new energy development,and promote the application of new energy in the manufacturing sector.