| Finance has assumed such a strategic importance in modern market economy that it has become a dominant industry that gives unprecedented impetus to the development of economy. There has been close correlation between the development of finance and the over-all socio-economic development. And in the finance field, effective risk management is the fundamental to survival, but also is the most important duties of the sectors. For the commercial banks, the security of the credit assets is related to survival and development, especially in recent years, with the development of capital market, it makes a number of high-quality companies to chose other methods of financing than bank loans, which may lost many high-quality clients and make the average quality of commercial bank’s credit customers declined. Credit assets accounted for a large proportion in commercial bank, and in increasingly competitive banking industry, credit risk management is a huge challenge to commercial bank.As major customers in a bank, the robustness of a company’s business or not, directly determines the quality of commercial banks’ credit assets, especially for the listed companies in China. And as the cornerstone of the securities market, the company’s quality is closely related with the stock market. But in an increasingly complex and competitive environment, it’s possible to make a corporate appear financial crisis.even bankruptcy with decision-making mistakes, lack of funds and so on.lt has caused tremendous losses to investors, banks.and upstream and downstream enterprises. Out of stock due to poor management, or even bankruptcy of listed companies is gradually in creasing, which make an extremely negative impact for Chinese securities market and even for financial market. So, it has an important significance for commercial banks to understand the company’s operating conditions in advance with establishing an effective early warning system of enterprise financial crisis.and it’s also advanced to predict the possiblity of corporate’s financial distress and to adjust the delivery of credit assets and prevent the occurrence of credit risk. At the same time,the regulatory authorities can advance the status of the company’s financial regulation with the model, and avoid lag and void.With the reference of domestic and international scholar’s studies, this article regards the listed company which is treated specially due to unusual financial condition in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market as the research object, selects 50 financial crisis companies and 50 normal companies, chooses 28 financial indexes, and 4 unfinancial indexes. Firstly, this article makes use of T-test and Mann-Whitney U test to discover the significant variables. Secondly, the article carries on the factor analysis by virtue of the remarkable financial variables to sets up logistic model based on the host factor and representative indexes. Finally, the article tests the effect of logistic model by 50 normal companies as test samples.Through the study we can find that, in the process of warning the financial crisis of listed companies.the commercial banks should select data of several consecutive years to analysis. And in the process of credit review, the commercial banks should focus on five years of financial data of listed companies, and in the fourth year if the company appear the trace of financial crisis the bank should take appropriate measures to ensure the security of credit funds. At the same time,we can see that asset-liability ratio has better effect on long-term pre-warning.The paper has been improved from financial data, financial indicators, sample selection and research point. However, it is undeniable that there are some limitations of this article. For example, the model is not suit for non-listed companies, and don’t eliminate the false data and so on. These shortages also point the direction of perfection on financial. |
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