Macro Econometric Model

Since the socialist market economy system in 1992 was established in China,Guizhou’s economic growth has been keeping sustaining and rapid, and the economicstructure was constantly optimized. Guizhou’s economy has gradually turned todemand-constrained style, which changed Guizhou’s economic operation mechanism.Demand-pull has become the main factor for Guizhou’s economic growth.For this reason, according to the system of national accounting (SNA), TheMacro-econometric Model of Guizhou’s Province is developed by using methods ofmacroeconomics, econometrics and industrial economics. Then on the basis of the modeland, by using the dynamic simulation experiments are conducted, to study the effects of thechange of exogenous variable on the Guizhou’s macro economy, thus providingsuggestions for the government. The main content of this paper is as follows:The first part mainly introduces the history of the macro-econometric model at homeand abroad, and the significance of theory and practice.The second part introduces the relevant economic theory, including the Keynesianeconomic theory, production theory, consumption theory, investment theory and tradetheory.The third part introduces the structural design of the model, including the purpose ofthe model, the ruling ideas of the model, the structural design of the model, the equation ofthe model.The fourth part introduces the process of establishing the model, including theselection and processing of data, the choice of estimation methods, the process ofestimation, dynamic simulation test.The last part introduces the application of the model. By using the dynamic simulationexperiments are conducted, to study the effects of the change of exogenous variable on theGuizhou’s macro economy, thus providing references for the government.