System Dynamics Simulation Research Of Macro Control Policy On The Real Estate Market In Hangzhou

Since the state positioning the real estate industry as a pillar industry in2003, it has developed rapidly, and there has aroused a sharp rise in both house price and sales volume over the past decade, thus caused widespread concern in the community. The nation have been introducing a series of measures to control the real estate market, however, the results does not show that satisfactory. Therefore, it is necessary to give a comprehensive analysis on the effect of macro-control policies to China’s real estate market, and build the simulation model. This paper takes Hangzhou housing market for an example, create a system dynamics simulation model to analysis Hangzhou real estate market development under policy effect, and put forward effective policy recommendations through policy experiments. The main work and conclusions of this paper are:Firstly, based on the current research findings home and abroad, aimed at the complex characteristic of real estate market, this paper choose system dynamics method which has advantages in dealing with higher-order, nonlinear, multi-feedback system problems to build the model and simulation. Take Hangzhou housing market for an example, it can be divided into price subsystem, supply subsystem and demand subsystem (in which, the demand subsystem can be redistributed into autonomy demand and investment demand), then look for the relationships between various factors and each factor’s influence to the system by drawing the causal feedback figure and system flow diagram, finally establish the system dynamics simulation model of Hangzhou housing market.Secondly, define variables, using multiple regressions, scoring assignment and other methods to estimate the parameters and indicators for Hangzhou housing market system dynamics simulation model. Then list DYNAMO equations, using computer software Vensim PLE6.2to run the model, and make authenticity test. By comparing the simulation value and the actual data, a good simulation performance can be found in the system model, the average error is guaranteed at less than10%, so the model can be considered valid. According to the simulation results of the model, the predicted value of average price of commercial housing in Hangzhou is18734yuan/m2. Finally, adjust the model parameters for policy experiments. The results show that:the population policy has less impact on housing prices, but has apparent stimulation on demand. Loose monetary policy will lead to rising prices, and tighter monetary policy does not inhibit the rise in house prices. Mortgage policies have the largest impact on the real estate market, especially the liberal mortgage policies will push housing price and demand to a great promotion, while tightening mortgage policy will suppress prices, and reducing demand as well, but the rangeability is nowhere near the influence of liberal policy. Also, when tightening policy reaches a certain critical value, continue increasing the domestic regulation has limited marginal effect on price suppression. New house purchasing deed adjustment hardly has any significant impact on the housing market, whether it is to raise or lower the tax rate, there has little change on either house price or sales volume of Hangzhou real estate market.