The Construction And Application Of International Dry Bulk Newbuilding Prosperity Index

The world shipping market, including new shipbuilding market, second-hand ship market, ship demolition market, the three parts of the ship price is a barometer of the shipping market volatility, it changes dynamically to reflect the rise and decline of ship market. From 1980 to 2011, the international shipping market has experienced the rise-Development-Prosperity-Depression-a smooth recovery of the four periods, ship Price drastic changes, during the four years from 2008 to 2011 due to financial crisis the impact of the world shipping market has experienced tremendous changes, especially the dry bulk fleet is particularly severe price fluctuations, which not only affect the shipyards offer the price of the new building ship but also bring the shipping companies into operational management problems. The development of the shipbuilding industry promote the development of the national economy in large partly, the proportion of dry bulk seaborne trade in the global shipping capacity is very high, more than one-third. The dry bulk shipping market is an important part of the world’s shipbuilding market. How to build an index to reflect the new shipbuilding market for dry bulk, as a tool of monitoring the daily production operations of shipyards and shipping companies and a standard measure of dry bulk newbuilding market is crucial.Analysis of dry bulk newbuilding Prosperity index is a quantitative analysis of dry bulk newbuilding market fluctuations, its main role is the basis for the shipyards, shipping companies and other business decision-making, monitoring the daily operations, but also as a standard of the implementation of judgment shipping policy Shipping companies treat dry bulk newbuilding Prosperity index as a basis for decision making in the production and management processes.The thesis firstly makes an overview of the world shipping market, newbuilding and second hand ship dismantling boat market, then reviewed the international dry bulk market, the dry bulk newbuilding market, and described the dry bulk newbuilding market a variety of factors, and then select the volume of new orders for the new boat market sentiment indicator in the system summary analysis on the basis of the various factors which may affect the degree of the new boat market boom, the use of Granger causality test method to remove the factors mentioned above small part of the new boat market impact, leaving a greater impact key factors, re-use of gray relational grade method, determine the weight of the key factors, according to the new world orders, and the new boat market sentiment index both the relationship between the building dry bulk newbuilding market sentiment index correction, more convenient and practical application.