The Research On Cointegration Relationship Of Real Estate Industry And The National Economy In China

The real estate industry of China is an important strength that can stimulate economic growth and drive the development of relative industries, but in recent years the phenomenon of real estate market investment’s overheating and high house pricing has brought some negative influence on national economy. The year of2011is called the toughest estate macro-control year ever.In order to curb the rising house prices, many regions have issued policies to restrict the house sale and house price. These policy have worked very well, the rising of house prices trend has be suppressed. It is of great practical significance for the common development of real estate industry and national economy to study the interaction of real estate industry and national economy as well as provide some reasonable proposals to nation and real estate enterprises.Based on the well known domestic and foreign research achievements, at first this paper describes the development history of real estate industry and national economic, and then choose the related statistical data from1990to2011years, analyze the relationship between real estate industry and national economic qualitatively and quantitatively, and finally use econometrical principle to verify the relationship between real estate industry and national economy in several aspects. In the process of verification, this paper adopts Johansen cointegration theory, vector regression model, granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition method.The conclusion of this paper are as follows (1) the development of real estate industry and national economy’s growth promote mutually. The real estate industry stimulate economy’s growth, if we can control the real estate industry development in an reasonable interval (2)the real estate investment can drive the development of related industries. Through the indirect pull function it also can stimulate economy’s growth.(3) the real estate prices has a negative effect on the consumption, the high house pricing has already put extra burden to common people.(4) The leading role of the real estate sector on the economyhas no equilibrium.Based on the verification results and the current situation of the policy,this paper put forward some suggestions to national policy-making and give some guides about how to face the real estate market environment to real estate enterprise, which have strong timeliness.