| Since the reform of housing system in 1998,China's real estate market has developed rapidly.Undeniably,the development of the real estate industry not only provides premise and place for the development of the national economy,but also plays a great role in driving economic growth.In fact,due to the ambiguity of the definition of "real estate bubble and the incomplete measurement method,and the bubble is usually confirmed after the emergence and bursting,it is not appropriate to use the bubble to describe the development status of China's real estate market.For this reason,in chapter two,instead of "real estate bubble",this paper proposes the concept of "irrational development of real estate market" to describe the current state of China's real estate market.Specifically,this article defines "the real estate market irrational development" as the phenomenon of house prices against the law of the market,because of the irrationality of the collective behavior of the real estate market while each participation main body in the real estate market(real estate developers,home buyers,local governments,the central government,bank,etc.)make "rational”decisions to maximize their own interests.The irrational development of real estate not only brings about the false boom of economy,but also has a series of adverse effects on the national economy.On the one hand,the soaring housing price has raised the production cost of industry and commerce,which restricted the development of the real economy.On the other hand,due to the high house price,ordinary people often spend nearly half of the income for a house.The pressure of house purchase and huge mortgage make residents bear a heavy burden and have to reduce consumption,which is not conducive to people's livelihood.In addition,the irrational development of the real estate market has brought the continuous intensification of systemic financial risk,which seriously threatens the macroeconomic security of China.In view of the great harm that may be caused by the irrational development of the real estate market,we must have a clear understanding of the current situation of the development of the real estate market in China,and deeply study the adverse impact of the irrational development of the real estate market on the national economy and its mechanism.This study is of great significance to the establishment of a long-term mechanism for the steady and healthy development of China's real estate market and the realization of sustainable economic development.Considering that the real estate has a strong influence on many sectors of the national economy,this paper will explore the bad influence of the irrational development of the real estate on the national economy from multiple angles.Specifically,the research ideas of this paper are as follows:First of all,taking the historical experience of the real estate crisis in the United States and Japan and the historical process of the irrational development of the real estate in China as the breakthrough point,we will judge the bad influence of irrational development of real estate on economy from the perspective of the national economy.Then,on the basis of the overall judgment,this paper will examine the negative impact of irrational development of China's real estate market on the national economy from the perspectives of real economy,household consumption and macro-financial risk.The paper is divided into eight chapters,which follow the research thinking of"raising problems analyzing problems--solving problems".The specific arrangement of each chapter is as follows.In the first chapter,this paper firstly introduces the current situation of irrational development of China's real estate market in recent years and its adverse effects,and then puts forward the main research questions of this paper.Question 1:How does the real estate bubble influence the macro economy?Is there any real estate bubble risk in China?Question 2:Is there any difference between the characteristics of real estate bubble in China and other countries?What impact does the irrational development of the real estate market have on the national economy?Can it drive national economy growth,increase fiscal revenue?Question 3:How will the irrational development of real estate affect the real economy?Specifically,Whether the irrational development of real estate would affect the real investment?Furthermore,whether the one-sided development of the real estate market would hinder China's industrial innovation?Question 4:How does the irrational development of the real estate market affect the consumption of Chinese residents?How does the rapid rise in housing prices affect residents consumption?Is there heterogeneity in the influence of high housing price on consumption of different residents?What are the mechanisms?Question 5:How will the irrational development of the real estate market affect macroeconomic security?How does the irrational development of the real estate market affect the risks of banking sector and non-financial sector?What is the risk transfer mechanism?The research of this paper is devoted to solving the above five problems,and the research vein of this paper is also based on this.In the second chapter,this article reviews the literature mainly from the mechanism of the real estate bubble,The influence of irrational development of real estate on real economy,the influence of irrational development of real estate on residents' consumption,and the influence of irrational development of real estate on macroeconomic security aspects.Through literature review,we point out the deficiency in existing research.In view of the blank of China's relevant research gaps,we also find out the clear research direction of this paper.In chapter three,through the historical observation of the real estate crisis in the United States and Japan,we clarified the serious consequences brought by the irrational development of real estate.We also explored the impact path of real estate bubble on macro economy before and after the outbreak of financial crisis through the establishment of variable parameter model.On the other hand,based on the above historical facts,this paper deeply analyzes the current situation of irrational development of China's real estate,and tests the stage of irrational development of China's real estate market through empirical analysis.In chapter 4,this paper mainly discusses the impact of the irrational development of the real estate market on China's national economy.Firstly,the author will investigate the development history of the real estate market from 1978 to the present to clarify the role of the government.Based on the existing historical data,we also judged the adverse effects of the irrational development of real estate as a whole from the perspective of national economy,which paved the way for the follow-up research.In chapter 5,this paper discusses the influence mechanism of irrational development of real estate market on real economy from the theoretical and empirical aspects.At the theoretical level,we put forward two hypotheses:first,there is an inverted u-shaped relationship between the rise of housing price and the real economy.Second,corporate profit margin plays an inverted u-shaped intermediary role between the rising house price and the real economy.At the empirical level,based on the mediation effect model,this paper studies the impact of housing price growth on real investment and industrial innovation respectively.The sixth chapter mainly analyzes the influence mechanism of high housing price on urban residents' consumption.On the one hand,this paper makes use of macroeconomic data to clarify the total "quantity" effect of high housing price on residents' consumption,providing new evidence for existing empirical research.On the other hand,based on the family life cycle theory,we use the micro data of the 2016 China family dynamic tracking survey project(CFPS)not only to explore the heterogeneity of the impact of housing price on residents' consumption,but also to deeply discusses the impact mechanism of high housing price on urban residents'consumption.The seventh chapter examines the influence of the irrational development of the real estate market on macroeconomic security.Firstly,this paper constructs risk indicators of real estate bubble,bank risk and non-financial sector risk,and describes the changes of risks in the real estate market,banking sector and non-financial sector.Secondly,through the above indicators,this paper also explores the impact mechanism of the irrational development of the real estate market on macroeconomic security by using the TVP-VAR model.Finally,in chapter 8,the research conclusion is summarized,and based on these conclusions,we put forward corresponding policy recommendation.The research conclusions of this paper can be summarized as follows:(1)The impact of the real estate bubble on the macro economy in different periods.First of all,the rising house price has a certain driving effect on private investment in the early stage of the real estate bubble,but when the bubble degree exceeds a certain limit,the driving effect will weaken gradually.In particular,in the wake of the financial crisis,the boost to private investment from rising house prices may even turn negative.Secondly,in China,the rise of real estate price is conducive to the increase of private investment in general,but its driving effect is gradually weakening,and there are huge risks hidden in the real estate market.(2)The overall investigation of the irrational development of real estate affects China's national economy.For the purpose of increasing fiscal revenue and driving economic growth,the Chinese government takes the real estate industry as the pillar industry,which leads to the irrational development of the real estate market.In the long run,the government's actions to stimulate the development of real estate will not only fail to stimulate economic growth or increase fiscal revenue,but also damage the normal operation of the national economy.Irrational development of real estate leads to sluggish growth of real economy,hinders economic transformation and adjustment of industrial structure,and also leads to a large amount of credit funds flowing into the real estate market,which is not conducive to the stability of macro financial system.(3)The impact of irrational development of real estate on real economy.The impact of house price rise on real economy shows an inverted u-shape.The rapid rise of house price will restrain the growth of real economy.In addition,the increase of corporate profit margin can promote the increase of real investment(industrial innovation),and the rise of housing price can exert influence on real investment(industrial innovation)through the intermediary effect of corporate profit.(4)The impact of high housing prices on urban residents' consumption.First of all,the high housing price in China can explain the sluggish consumption to some extent,which is not conducive to promoting the growth of consumer consumption in China.Secondly,the high housing price has a restraining effect on the consumption of rental families in China,which is mainly reflected in young families.In addition,although the wealth effect brought by the rising house price can promote the increase of residents' consumption,the increase of outstanding housing loans brought by the high house price and the decline of household asset liquidity have a significant restraining effect on household consumption.Generally speaking,the current housing price rise in China will restrain the consumption behavior of urban residents,especially young people.And the high housing price will encourage young people to increase savings and reduce consumption,which is not conducive to smoothing their lifetime consumption.(5)The impact of irrational development of real estate on macroeconomic security.First,the impact of rising house prices will increase risks in the banking sector in the short term,but the impact in the medium and long term will gradually weaken.Second,there is no "time lag," in the positive impact of house price rise shock on non-financial sector risks,and this driving effect will gradually weaken as time goes by.Thirdly,the rising of non-financial sector debt risk will promote the rise of bank risk.Therefore,the rise of house price can also exert an impact on bank risk through the mechanism of "rising house price--rising non-financial sector debt--rising bank risk".Finally,the government's loose real estate regulation policy and monetary policy have a magnifying effect on risk transmission among various departments,so the government should carefully formulate relevant policies.At last,the innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following aspects.First,from the perspective of history,this paper comprehensively explored the experience and lessons of the real estate crisis in the United States and Japan.On the one hand,the paper clarified the role of the real estate bubble in the financial crisis,providing theoretical basis and empirical basis for the healthy development of.China's real estate industry.On the other hand,by comparing the current situation of China's real estate development with the history of America and Japan,we correctly understand the situation of irrational development of China's real estate market.Most of the previous literature about examining the relationship between the real estate bubble and financial crisis did not consider the great changes of economic:environment before and after the financial crisis,which may lead to the variation of the impact of the real estate price fluctuations on the national economy.Taking the real estate crises in the United States and Japan as examples,this paper attempts to use the variable-parameter model to study the time-varying path of the real estate bubble(real estate price deviation)on the impact of private sector investment in different periods.Secondly,through the investigation of the development process of Chinese real estate,this paper clarifies the role of the government in the irrational development of real estate market,and clarifies the adverse impact of the irrational development of the real estate market on the national economy.On the one hand,based on the particularity of China's real estate market,this paper studies the reasons for the irrational development of China's real estate market from the perspective of government regulation,and analyzes the motivation and influence mechanism of government intervention in the real estate market.On the other hand,using the historical data of real estate and national economy,this paper makes an overall investigation on the influence of irrational development of Chinese real estate market on national economy and draws a conclusion:In the long run,government stimulus to real estate will not help economic development or increase fiscal revenue.Thirdly,this paper examines the adverse effects of the irrational development of real estate on the national economy from multiple perspectives,and deeply investigates the impact mechanism of the irrational development of real estate on the real economy,household consumption and macro-financial risk.(1)The real economy side.Existing literature on the impact of housing price rise on the real economy either believe that the rise of housing price is conducive to the growth of the real economy,or hold that it will crowd out investment in the real economy.Different from the existing literature,this paper confirms the "inverted u-shaped"influence of house price rise on the real economy from the theoretical and empirical levels.In addition,the existing literature involving rare prices impact on the real economy mechanism(especially channels based on the corporate profits)of related research.This paper empirically verifies the mediating effects of corporate profit rate between house price and real economy,providing empirical evidence for the transmission mechanism of "housing price rise corporate profit rate--real economy".(2)Household consumption side.This paper also deeply discusses how the high housing price affects the consumption of urban residents,and on the whole our findings expand or enrich relevant studies in the following two aspects:first,this paper used macroeconomic data to clarify the inhibiting effect of high housing price on the consumption of residents,providing new evidence for existing empirical research.Secondly,based on the theory of family life cycle,the influence mechanism of high housing price on urban residents' consumption is deeply discussed from the perspective of heterogeneity of the impact of housing price on residents' consumption.In addition,this paper also analyzes the distorting effect of the high housing price on the consumption of young people,and finds that the high housing price will make the consumption in the life cycle more uneven.(3)Macro-financial risk side,This paper explores the dynamic impact mechanism of the irrational development of real estate on macroeconomic security.On the one hand,the innovation of this part lies in the construction of new real estate bubble risk index,bank risk index and non-financial sector excessive debt risk index,which accurately depicts the potential risks of the real estate sector,banking sector and non-financial sector.On the other hand,most previous studies only examined the relationship between the risks of real estate,banking and non-financial sectors without considering the time evolution characteristics of the three relationships when the external environment changes.In this paper,we use the tvp-var model to explore the time-varying influences of house price rise on risks of banks and non-financial sectors,which is more accurate to describe the influences of irrational development of real estate on macroeconomic risks. |
PDF Full Text Request