The Research On The Optimal Model Of Industrial Structure Of Guangxi In The View Of The Ecological Security

Today many scholars research the relationship of economic growth and ecological destruction all over the world, but only the Environmental Kuznets Curve, EKC brings a greater impact,it has been recognized by many scholars. The theory suggests that an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and ecological destruction, and it finds that the greater economic growth brings the greater damage to the environment, the environment has become the inevitable price of economic growth. Now it is generally agreed that we can ease the tension by adjusting the industrial structure, because the industrial structure is a main factor of economic growth affecting environment, that means we can improve our environment more effectively by expanding the industry of energy saving and environment protection and reducing the development of the industry of environment-dependent. Now scholars and the whole community give more attention to the relationship between industrial structure and ecological protection, and they begin a wide range of discussion and research on the related concepts, theories and practical issues. But most of studies are limited to qualitative analysis of their relationship. We are faced with many new challenges, for example how to adjust the industrial structure and how to converse the qualitative analysis to the quantitative analysis. In order to solve the problem, we use the ideas and theories of the system dynamics and follow the theory of the economic and environmental system to study the question of the evolution of the overall economic environment.This paper describes the researched situation of the relationship of ecological security and industrial structure at the first, and finds that the research results about industrial structure adjustment of Guangxi are far from meeting the Guangxi industrial development needs based the industrial ecological security perspective. Secondly we summarized the existing theories about industrial structure and ecological security, and we analyses the contacts along economic growth, industry structure and ecological security, we find we can ease the contradiction between the region’s economic growth and environmental protection by upgrading the industrial structure. Thirdly we use the knowledge of the system dynamics theory to analyse the system of economic environment of Guangxi, we divide the economic environment into the population subsystem, industrial economic subsystem, environment subsystem and resource subsystem, and we describe their flow chart in detail. We link them to construct a overall system of cycle operation, at the same time we test the correctness, validity and sensitivity of the model finally. The fourth step of our articles is the core part. Combining with the actual situation of the development of Guangxi we use the established dynamic model to suggest four possible simulation program, the first program is maintaining the status, the second program is environmental improvement, the third is industry upgrading and the last one is industry upgrading based environmental improvement. By analyzing the simulation results of the four program we draw the following conclusions(1)The first program cannot make people to achieve a greater economic development at the total, and force people to pay enormous ecology and environment costs, this can not meet the economic and environment harmony requirement;(2)In the short term we can ease the pressure of the environment, but in the long term, this program is to slow down the rate of economic growth to protect the environment perversed with the needs of economic development of Guangxi;(3)In the long run the third program still cause the tremendous pressure on the environment, although the ecological damage is less than the first program;(4)In order to avoid the above problems, the forth program increase the environment improvement with promoting industrial adjustment, the simulation results show that not only promote the region’s rapid economy development, but also maximize the protection of the ecological environment, it achieve a sustainable economy in Guangxi. So it is a ideal model of development relatively.With combining the above conclusions and considering the actual situation of development in Guangxi, we propose the following several policy recommendations for the realization of the harmonious development of the economic and environment of Guangxi:(1)To increase investment in the education, and improve the overall quality of the regional population;(2)To adjust the ideas of economic development in Guangxi and insist in following the new path of sustainable development based on the ecological security perspective;(3)To increase investment in the environmental protection and promote the development of the economy and environment.