Spatial Panel Analysis On The Influence Of Provincial Urbanization To Carbon Emissions

In the rapid economic development will bring the enormous growth of the carbon emissions, especially in the early stages of economic extensive development, too much of energy and resource consumption pushing for China’s economic growth. At present, China’s carbon dioxide emission has been the first in the world. Therefore, how to control and reduce carbon emissions becomes a hot issue at home and abroad. And the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization become the main features of China’s current development, carbon emissions relatively difficult at the condition of the rigid energy consumption demand, therefore grasp the current stage of the carbon emissions influence factors, on the development of the current stage of the emission reduction policy have important significance. This article by "a low carbon economy" development theory as a foundation, the selection of1995-2009in China province data related urbanization, first by using the dynamic panel study of carbon emissions across the stage effect, and put the regional influence factor into the model, and then use the spatial panel data model analysis provincial level of urbanization development of the influence of carbon emissions.At the beginning of this paper, I introduce background and significance of the research, reviews and comments the relative studies both at home and abroad, and put forward the research contents, the ideas and methods. It is very important for making the right policy to grasp the path of carbon emissions and the influencing factors better. For carbon emissions, what is the role of urbanization process is a subject of practical significance. Through study the related literature at home and abroad found that the current study focuses with time series and cross-sectional analysis, in the nationwide research. Therefore, this paper tries to introduce geographic space factors into the model, in order to study the urbanization and the carbon space related problems.Part two of this article introduced the related theory. Review the origin and meaning of a" low-carbon economy", combining the characteristics of urbanization and industrialization process, the process of urbanization on carbon emission is analyzed theoretically. In the process of urbanization and industrialization stage, the process of urban construction used in building materials, metallurgy and other industries used are high carbon industry. The rigidity of demand in the urban construction process will lead to the growth of high-carbon industries, thus produce large amounts of emissions, and restrain the optimization of the industrial structure adjustment. With the economic growth, transportation industries also become a major source of carbon emissions. So this article selects the urbanization, industrial structure and transportation as index analysis, this paper discusses above factors for carbon emissions impact.Because of the space between the variables influence each other is the main content of this article, so the third part of this article introduced the spatial panel theory. Based reviewed on the theory of spatial panel data model, combed the space panel of the development of the theory of process. Then introduces the spatial Durbin model developed on the basis of the spatial lag and error model. And model of the test, to define and estimate a detailed description. Finally, this paper introduces the effect and the indirect effect of direct estimation methods, and in its in economics empirical analysis of the significance of the instructions.The third and fourth parts were applied dynamic panel method and space model of the selection panel the influence of carbon emissions index of empirical analysis. Through the dynamic panel got carbon emissions across the stage of the influence factors, the author thinks that in the cross time range, the carbon emissions exists inertia, and the early stage of the late great influence, and the current urbanization process on the influence of the current carbon emissions is not obvious, but the transportation and the change of industrial structure still to current carbon emissions will produce certain effect. Before joining space interaction that the urbanization process after alone for the influence of the carbon emissions is not great, but the city’s process, the transportation industry to the influence of the carbon emissions are huge, and in the surrounding areas produce extrusion effect, the industrial structure is spilling effect, the process of urbanization direct effect is obvious, and the indirect effect is not obvious. The influence of factors and carbon emissions of the size of the role that are not the same when the development situation different.Based on the analyzing in the fourth part, puts forward some policy suggestions. First, in the process of urbanization, the city shall be changed consumption patterns, and gradually complete the high carbon consumption to low carbon consumption changes. The second point, pay attention to technology innovation on the industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of function, achieve the goal of low carbon economy "development. But at the same time also to realize in the urbanization and the process of industrialization, the call is to control emissions incremental instead of total amount control, so energy conservation and emission reduction to implement. The third point full development of public transportation development, increase green environmental protection of transportation technology investment, in order to achieve a low carbon travel. Finally, because the carbon inertia and space affect, so in making implementing related policies, we should pay attention to strengthen the coordination between regions and the long-term of mechanism, and really the point of view of global from a long-term and finish the task of energy conservation and emission reduction.Finally this paper made a brief summary, and in the course of the study found that the question put forward the prospects of the study.