The Research Of Carbon Dioxide Emissions To China Nonferrous Metals Industry Based On The Scenario Analysis

Under the pressure of rise in global temperatures, carbon dioxide emission has become one of the themes the world most focus on. China has been one of the most carbon dioxide emissions countries. Chinese nonferrous industry is high in energy use and pollution, and low in resources use. This paper probe into the developing mode of the Chinese nonferrous industry which is not only ensure the healthy development of the industry but also contribute to energy saving and emission reduction. It has important realistic significance to give research in low carbon mode of the nonferrous industry.This paper analyzed the carbon emissions of the China nonferrous metal industry based on the scenario analysis. In the selection of the scenario index, this paper choose the following factors, the growth of the China GDP and the Carbon dioxide emissions, the growth of the nonferrous industry output and Carbon dioxide emissions. This paper analyzed the distribution of carbon dioxide emissions allocation by using traditional index. Because of the defects of the traditional index, this paper put forward a new index base on the externalities and independent development. And then the paper analyzed the carbon dioxide emissions of countries. We also use ARIMA mode to forecast the growth of the GDP. This paper set scenario by using the above index and then had scenario analysis to the Carbon dioxide emissions of the China nonferrous industry in the year of2020. By the analysis, this paper got the developing mode from seven scenarios. The growths of output speed in the china nonferrous industry keep7.55percents. The carbon dioxide emission of the industry in2020is61646to67175million tons. The carbon dioxide emissions per output in2020reduce40to45percents to the year2005. This paper analyzed energy consumption of the nonferrous industry by using logarithmic mean decomposition index, the results showed that the influence of the output is the most serious, and then the energy efficiency, finally the industrial structure.This paper had analysis of the carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption of the nonferrous industry. The paper Demonstrate the energy conservation and emission reduction and the feasibility of the emissions reducing to the industry. Finally, the paper gets conclusions and the suggestions to low carbon development of the nonferrous industry.