Low-carbon Development Scenario Analysis In Shandong Province Based On LEAP

As the world economy and the continuous growth of the human production and consumption activities, the global GHG emissions and energy consumption increase sharply.The global climate has brought serious damage changes caused by different kinds of activities of people to the world’s social and economic development, the affected scope is wider, including energy, ecology, water and food security, threatening human survival and sustainable development. In short, shortage of energy and climate warming have become the restriction factors for human existence and the global economy. China’s GHG emissions is one of the most in the world, because our country population base is bigger, energy consumption is given priority to with high emissions of coal resources, the economy is in rapid development period,then the carbon emissions will rise in future. In addition, the Chinese government put forward China’s carbon emissions will peak in 2030, or earlier in 2014. It puts forward higher requirements for China’s energy conservation and emissions reduction, and it is of great significance to actively research how to realize the promise. Shandong province is a big economic province, the economy had a rapid development since 2000. But the economic growth in Shandong province rely too much on the second industry characterized by high energy and high pollution, although the proportion of secondary industry presents the downward trend in recent years, but the proportion is still larger. In the long run, the Shandong province must choose the low carbon development path.This article takes Shandong province as the research object, demonstrate and analysis the peak years of energy consumption in shandong province, set different development situation, use the software of LEAP model to predict the energy consumption and carbon emissions of different situation, quantitatively analysis the supporting economic growth of the different scenarios. The results of the study: the peak years of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Shandong province keep synchronization to the national peak years in 2030,which can be achieved, and maintain a reasonable economic growth rate; take various policy measures to ensure that carbon emissions in 2050 fell to about 40% of the 2010 international convention or the gap will be not too bigger, then achieve the 2050 target by the carbon emissions trading or carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology; If the peak years of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Shandong province achived in 2025, the carbon reduction pressure is relatively small in the future, but it will seriously reduce the speed of economic growth, which can only support around 2% of economic growth; If the peak years of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Shandong province in 2035, the future emission reduction pressure is bigger, the cost used for reduction of carbon emissions trading or CCS is very high, which is equivalent to the fiscal revenue in the year in Shandong. Therefore, the peak years achieved in 2030 in Shandong province is scientific and reasonable. Finally, I hope to explore the way of energy conservation and emissions reduction based on the analysis, and provide the reference in energy and low carbon development in Shandong province for future.