Analysis And Prediction On Carbon Dioxide Emission Of Manufacturing Industry In China

With the accelerating process of industrialization and urbanization in China, as well as the scale-up of international trade, the development of China’s manufacturing industry is more and more powerful, and the attendant environmental problems have become even more prominent, especially the increasing carbon dioxide emission of manufacturing industry caused by energy consumption. Therefore, the study on energy-related carbon dioxide emissions of manufacturing industry in China has important significance for the government to deal with energy, environment and sustainable development issues. This paper aims to analysis the influential factors of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions of China’s manufacturing industry and forecast the future carbon dioxide emissions on this basis, in order to provide references for the government and relevant departments.Firstly, this thesis describes the overall status of current situation and energy consumption of manufacturing industry in China, for the purpose of understanding China’s manufacturing industry in high-speed development, more jobs provided and the changes in industrial structure after joining WTO. It also can be known that the total energy consumption is large, the energy structure is coal-dominated but in the process of continuous optimization, and the energy intensity is going down.Secondly, the Laspeyres complete decomposition analysis method is adopted to analyze the energy-related carbon dioxide emission of manufacturing industry in China through four factors:the carbon intensity, the energy intensity, the economic structure and the economic development. The study found that the economic development and the energy intensity are the decisive factors in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions of manufacturing industry. The economic development has the most positive effect and the energy intensity has the most negative effect on carbon dioxide emission. The effect of changes in economic structure on carbon dioxide emissions is not significant, while the effect of carbon density on carbon dioxide emissions is most weak.Thirdly, the scenario analysis prediction method and grey theory prediction method are applied to forecast the manufacturing industrial energy-related carbon dioxide emission in the year of2015,2020and2030, respectively, considering the advantages and disadvantages of different methods. In the scenario prediction method, the four factors are carbon intensity, energy intensity, economic structure and economic development. The scenarios of Basic Analysis Unit, Low Carbon scenario and Enhanced Low Carbon scenario are set.Finally, policy suggestions on restructuring of energy, improvement of energy efficiency, upgrading of industrial structure and development of economy are provided according to the analysis and calculation in this thesis.