Technology Life Cycle Analysis Modelling Based On Patent Documents

To estimate the future development of one technology and make decisions whether to invest in it or not, one needs to know the stage status of the technology life cycle (TLC). The major approach to analyzing TLC uses the S-curve to observe patent applications over time. But using the patent application counts alone to represent the development of technology oversimplifies the situation. In this paper, we build a model to calculate the TLC for an object technology based on multiple patent-related indicators. The model includes the following steps:first, we focus on devising and assessing patent-based TLC indicators. Then we choose some technologies (training technologies) with identified life cycle stages, and finally compare the indicator features in training technologies with the indicator values in an object technology (test technology) by Nearest Neighbour Classifier, which is widely used in Pattern Recognition, to process the data by calculating the nearest distance among the test point and training points to find the most similar feature in training points. Therefore, the stage of the training point with the nearest distance to the test point predicts the stage of the test point. In this paper, we adopt13indicators based on patent documents, take Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display (TFT-LCD) and Cathode Ray Tube (CRT) as the training technologies and Nano-biosensor (NBS) serves as the test technology. The result shows that the TLC stages of NBS are:emerging stage:1985-1996, growth stage:1997-. Therefore, NBS is still in its growth stage. There are still some technologies need more work in order to resolve key problems. We get some results from patent analysis:the leading country in NBS field is United States, but Korea has the biggest part of important assignees. Therefore, in the growth stage of NBS, for those who have entered this technology field from the very beginning should use the experience to further improve on the technology innovation. For those who have entered this technology field recently or are planning to invest in this field, they have great chances to be the competitors since there are many key problems should be resolved. The method and result of this study can be used in management practice to enable technology observers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology of interest.