Technology Forecasting By Patent Analysis:A Case Of Popular Technology In The Fourth Industrial Revolution

A new round of technological revolution in the world is accelerating.The technological revolution characterized by intelligence and digitization will lead to a readjustment of the division of labor in the international industry.The world pattern is about to be reshaped,and various countries have adopted innovation-driven strategies to gain core advantages.For our country,the new industrial revolution provides a historical opportunity for overtaking in corners,and it is of vital importance to enhance the scientificity and effectiveness of technological strategic layout.Identify and predict popular technologies in the fourth industrial revolution,and analyze the development stage of technology from the perspective of technology groups,and grasp the development trend from a macro perspective,which can provide decision-making basis for scientific research enterprises or institutions Optimize resource allocation to provide a reference direction.At present,most of the relevant research on the fourth industrial revolution stays in the qualitative research stage of theoretical research,and the technology forecasting work is usually concentrated on a single or several technologies.This paper extracts the popular technologies in the current research on the fourth industrial revolution through bibliometrics,and uses mathematical models to quantitatively predict its development trend.At the same time,based on the life cycle characteristics of the technology,this article clusters popular technologies.Through empirical analysis,this study first determined the Internet of Things,cyber-physical systems,big data,cloud computing,additive manufacturing,OPC unified architecture,digital twins,machine learning,blockchain,augmented reality,virtual reality,deep learning technologies are currently popular topics in the fourth industrial revolution research.Second,choose linear functions and four commonly used nonlinear function models to test the patent growth trend of different technologies.Finally,the Logistic and Gompertz models are used to determine the technology life cycle stage of the fourth industrial revolution popular technology,and clustering based on its development trend to obtain the fourth industrial revolution popular technology group.Finally,based on the research results,this paper proposes some suggestions such as:promoting technological integration,strengthen technological innovation,build the fourth industrial revolution technology ecosystem,provide institutional policy guarantees for the fourth industrial revolution technology development,etc.