Dynamic Decision-making Pattern For Unconventional Emergency

With the development of human society, deterioration of the natural environment and the complicated social situation, china and abroad suffered a series of large-scale emergencies in recent years, It not only caused heavy casualties, but also caused serious economic losses, such as large earthquake of Wenchuan, Yushu and Japan, Wenzhou CHR train accident, Bohai gulf oil spill accident. With the rapid development of science and technology, and the deepening of science theoretical research, the aware of the importance of emergency management of people are increasing. So the emergency management measures which based on the non conventional emergency have been introduced, in the need of holistic society, unconventional emergency decision system becomes an important part of the emergency measures. Recently, the studies of the emergency decision system in china and abroad are mainly in some professional field, such as contingency plans, simulation, decision method and so on, and an relatively independent, static decision system in this field is built. However, unconventional emergency decisions are complexity, dynamic and multiple target, in the actual development process of the emergency, it can create a lot of connected events, involve multiple departments, faced with a number of determinative target, this all need to make decision change base on dynamic circumstances. Therefore, construct a system which can reflect the characteristics of unconventional emergency decision, and study the dynamic model of the system will be helpful to improve the accuracy and timeliness of the emergency decision, and it has the theoretical and practical value.In view of these problems above, this article base on the unconventional emergency decision system, to study the characteristics, structure, dynamic model and multi-objective optimization of the unconventional emergency decision system, the main work is as follows:(1)To study the basal theory of unconventional emergency decision, and do the character analysis, demand analysis and mechanism analysis in-depth of unconventional emergency decision system.(2) introduced the thought of system science and the theory of automatic control into the unconventional emergency decision system, build the internal dynamic role model based on system dynamics and the target feedback model based on the principle of feedback control, study the dynamic decision mode of two kinds of models, to table a optimize suggestion of unconventional emergencies dynamic decision system.(3) Patulous research of multiple objective decision based on the target of feedback model, and multiple objective decision solution.