Study Of Group Decision Making Method And Technological Realization In Emergency Response For Technology Hazard

Different from nature hazard, economic society has made a choice to development with technology risk together. Technology hazard has been ascending in quantity and extending in scale, and under the trend of transfer to new industry estate and developing country, currently, emergency respond sluggish and wrong decision making always happened, which have induced great loss to life safety, economic development and environment. Thus, study for emergency response and group decision making method has important meaning. Now, group decision making has achieved a great deal research productions, yet which can be fit for application of emergency response to technology hazard is still limited. Therefore, by theory study of technology hazard, the dissertation concludes the main characters of technology hazard emergency decision making, and constructs the research system for group decision making to response technology hazard.(1) Current experiment studies on group decision making seldom deal with the problem of generating decision scenario, however, it is the first step to actualize emergency response for technology hazard emergency decision making. Based on Case-based Reasoning, dissertation will study how to generate the decision making scenario for technology hazard emergency response. It uses Integrate Superiority Degree to resolve the question that current case retrieval strategies can’t identify the source case which match with target problem negatively, and then it adopts self-adapting control method to adjust the obtained scenario, and generates the scenario set for technology hazard emergency group decision making. The method is applied into generating the emergency scenarios for gas explosion accident in coal mine, and is approved to be reliability.(2) For the characters of technology hazard about multi-hazard deriving and second hazard happing, and the induced difficult problem for emergency decision, dissertation proposes the partial group decision making method, which allows decision individuals to evaluate emergency scenario set selectivity based on their domain knowledge. According to resolving the key issues of distributing decision scenarios to experts, assigning weights and concentrating group preferences, a partial group decision model is proposed. Especially, by using the scenario partial weights given from experts, the model will get the whole solution for attribute, scenario and expert weights, thus the decision is objective comparatively. The method is used to make a group decision for emergency evacuation in metro fire accident, and it is approved to be validity.(3) For another character of technology about multi-stage evolvement, dissertation also studies multi-stage emergency group decision making method. Under the situation that decision expert can’t make sure of some scenarios during decision procedure, the method allows experts to give the scenario preference with uncomplete judgement matrix, Morever, since technology hazard emergency decision making needs broad domain knowledge, and the importance of experts’ opinions are different from each other in every stage, thus, multi-stage emergency group decision making model resolves the problem of assigning expert weights in each step too. At last, the method is applied to deal with dangerous chemical liquid benzene leaking.(4) After that, dissertation will evaluate the efficiency of emergency group decision making for technology hazard. The emergency group decision making effect can’t be evaluated because of the difference in decision environment and decision goal. To resolve that problem, dissertation constructs a goal programming model to assign each decision item an individual criterion system. Then from the point of decision effect, it evaluates the efficiency emergency group decision making by surrogate on the base of identifying decision individual character, therefore, the method has the function of analysis, which can provide suggestions to improve the efficiency of emergency group decision making. The method is applied to evaluate the group decision making efficiency in metro fire accident evacuation.(5) Be based upon those studies on technology hazard theories and emergency group decision making, according to designing system framework and functions, dissertation finally develops the emergency group decision making support system for technology hazard emergency response by Java and Internet technology. With the functions of system management and the monitor disaster situation, the system can make experts actualize real time decision making and feedback information for emergency response under the net environment, by which the optimal of group decision making will be obtained, and then the decision efficiency and quality will be improved to respond technology hazard.