Price Forecasting Study Of Real Estate Based On Macro And Micro Driving Factors

The housing price is the vane of the market trend, there are many factors affect the housing price. Not only investors but also real estate companies and government pay attention to the trend of the future housing prices. Therefore, we need to study suitable forecasting methods to predict the housing prices reasonably and accurately.At first, this article studies the housing prices from the factors and predictive models, and investigative the research results of domestic and international countries, it can grasp the trend of study. This paper has in-depth and comprehensive analysis of the housing prices from the micro and macro levels by using qualitative and quantitative methods. In the conclusions that the housing prices are affected by the macro and micro factors, remove the microscopic effects by using Hedonic Model, then calculate the standard housing hedonic price which can reflect changes of supply and demand relationship in the macroeconomic. At last, we can establish VAR model by using of standard housing hedonic price and macroeconomic indicator variables, and analyze new rising factors of real estate by the method of the impulse response function and variance decomposition, then predict the change rate of the housing prices. As the Hedonic Price Method has not been implemented in nationwide, we are unable to get the hedonic housing prices of national country, we can’t take this method to conduct empirical research in nationwide. On the basis of accessing to the data of Hefei, the paper establish VAR model to conduct empirical research. The results of the impulse response function and variance decomposition derived from the VAR suggest: compared with other influencing factors, the housing prices of Hefei are seriously affected by their own factors, and have been more affected by recent prices. To a certain extent, it can be explained that the fluctuations of the housing prices in Hefei are more affected by psychological expectations of the consumers, and there is a certain investment or speculative demand. In recent years,because of the rapid economic development of Hefei, GDP is rising constantly, the income of residents are increasing, all these can be contributed to the housing prices. In addition, the contributions from loans of financial institutions, land price and interest rate are very small. It reflects that the housing market of Hefei is not high dependence on financial institutions, and the financial risk is not very high. The forecasting results of housing prices demonstrate:In four quarters of2011, the housing prices of Hefei are in a stable growth, the negative growth may be turned out in the first quarter, and the growth rate will not exceed10%in other three quarters.From the predicting results of the housing prices in Hefei, it is corresponded to the reality of Hefei’s housing market. Therefore, the forecasting methods of the housing prices which are based on macro and micro driving factors can make up for the defects of the past studies to get the more accurate predicting results. It is also a new attempt to improve the forecasting methods of the housing prices in our country.