| Adopting past housing price information,interest rate, housing demand, housing supply etc,as independent variables and using the VAR model, This paper analyzes the characteristics of Shanghai’s housing price from January 2000 to April 2010. Through the econometric analysis in the User Capital Cost model and Portfolio Selection Model, we find that,past housing price information could partially explain current housing price change,especially in the short term; both real deposit interest rate and real mortage interest rate has negative influence in the long run;while real mortage interest rate and the real house renting price has limited influence on the fluctuation of Shanghai housing price. Finally,we get some conclusions on the further implementation of China real estate macro control policy. |
