Comprehensive Evaluation Method Research Of New Energy Investment Risk Decision-making

High technology is now becoming the main productive force. The blossom of high technology industrial lies in the foundation of the new investment and financing system, and the employment of modern finance instruments by high-tech corporations. As a new investment mode for high-tech corporations, venture investment becomes more and more important in economy.Nowadays, lots of environment problems emerge. Facing this serious situation, the whole world continuously makes efforts for energy saving and emission reduction. Low-carbon economy has now brought about a new revolution. After 30 years’ extensive growth of our economy, the sustainability of our environment has reached its utmost. Seeking for new energy and changing the way of economy growth call for new technology. And venture investment will play a pivotal role.Though starting late, our new energy venture investment develops very fast. Considering the high risk, many investment institutions made their decision with discretion. Only few companies can get the investment. How to scientifically judge the value of a new energy venture investment project, how to decrease the risk for investment and how to increase the probability of success are what one should consider before investment.To estimate a new energy project, a series of estimation system and estimation standard should be built. And that can help one to get rid of the blindness for estimation. One can determine whether the project should be invested in or not.As a long-term equity investment, new energy venture investment has irreversibility and flexibility comparing with common energy venture investment. Theory and method of real options will be used for analyzing both the value and the risk of a certain project, and consummating new energy venture investment project estimation system. The real option is a kind of option that considers non-finance as underlying assets. And this kind of option has a wide range of application, for example, all kinds of project investment decision-making, corporation value assessment, tech and intangible assets value assessment, etc. Real option greatly breaks the traditional way of decision-making and well adapt to new energy projects with uncertainty and risk.By using material pricing models of real option estimation, the feature of multi-period and multi-state new energy venture investment project is simulated in this paper. It also adopts a series of triple tree compound option model, and proves this model by analyzing real cases, and exactly estimates the value of the new energy project in the list case. The shortage of this model is also studies in depth in this paper.The conclusion of the whole paper and the prospect of the study are shown at the end of the paper. Relevant suggestions on how to improve the new energy venture investment management in our country are also provided.