The Adjustment Of Energy Structure And Study Of Energy Strategy

Energy resources are the important material foundations for national economic and social development.The main problems include the follows: energy shortage becomes increasingly serious.The intensity of energy use is higher.The gap of energy efficiency compared with the developed countries is obvious.The structure of energy products is unreasonable.The structure of energy regional distribution is imbalance.The problems of environment become increasingly serious.And the security problem of energy has been highlighted.In the above-mentioned issues,the energy structure is undoubtedly the core of these problems.First,coal is the dominant fuel in China's end-use energy consumption,which is a main cause to China's energy inefficiency.It is useful to optimize energy structure to enhance China's energy use efficiency.Second,the unreasonable energy structure has also brought related issues,such as the deterioration of the environment and the security of the energy supply.So in current and even future,the adjustment and optimization for energy structure is the core of China's energy strategy for a fairly long period.It is also one of the most concerned issues in the current energy researches.This thesis mainly pays attention to the problem of energy structure. First,the Logistic model is proposed.By statistical test estimation methods, the economic growth coefficient and the largest shortfall of coal demand are predicted and estimated.And changes in the consumption of petroleum and gas on the impact of coal are considered as well.By the data of China's statistical annual in 2007,the development trend of the energy structure in the next 20 years is analyzed quantitatively,and the related measures are also proposed.Then taking the energy resources structure for Jiangsu Province as background,a non-linear model is established by leading into competition,which takes the coal primarily and multiplex develops petroleum,natural gas and the other energy resources.The dissipation of the system is analyzed by precise proofs,and three equilibrium points are obtained.Then the stability of equilibrium points,bifurcation etc.are analyzed as well.In the end,the role of the renewable resources to improve energy structure is analyzed.Through the above-mentioned researches,the conclusions of this study are as follows:1.The Logistic model for energy resources structure and its predict(1) The total coal consumption seen from the plot is in upward trend. But energy exploration and consumption must develop with economic and environment coordinately.And technology is also the important factor.So the actual consumption has a "S" increasing track.(2) There are some notes for China's energy structure adjustment:the coal resources have to be used deeply.Hydropower has to be constructed further.Nuclear power has to be developed actively.The development and utilization of new energy resources and renewable resources have to be considered highly.2.An energy resources structural system for Jiangsu Province and its dynamical analysisPitchfork bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation exist in the system by proofs.The corresponding measures are proposed by analyzing the domain of the elastic coefficient for petroleum and natural gas consumption in Jiangsu Province.According to the result,the elastic coefficient can not be too large or too small;otherwise it would cause the system unstable.So if the sustainable development is realized between economy,energy and environment,suitable increase of the proportion for petroleum and natural gas consumption is necessary when the system is stable.3.Large-scale development of renewable resourcesLarge-scale development of renewable resources is an important act to optimize China's energy structure.It is greatly significant for improving the energy efficiency and reducing environment degradation.However, immature technology and high cost are the key constraints.Policy support and social participation are needed as well.The main innovations in this thesis are as follows:1.Logistic as a mathematical model has simplicity and obvious reality. It can describe the feedback mechanism of energy consumption and economic growth.Therefore,Logistic model of energy structure is more scientific and rational.Meanwhile,the changes between the energy structure factors have been studied deeply in this thesis.2.There are many researches on energy structure in and out.But most of them analyze from qualitative assay,or establish a linear model.And there are few quantitative researches on nonlinear dynamics.Taking the energy resources structure for Jiangsu Province as background in this thesis, saving energy and optimizing energy structure,non-linear model is established,which takes the coal primarily and multiplex develops petroleum,natural gas and the other energy resources.The relationships between these three are studied.And the dynamic characters of this system are analyzed.