Research On The Turning In The Mid-to-late Period Of Guangdong’s Population Urbanization

At present, the urbanization level of Guangdong province is in the mid-to-late period,according to the population urbanization theory of Northam, this period is a critical stagewhich turn from middle term to later term. Therefore, it bears significant theoretical andpractical importance to make accurate prediction about turning stage and to promote aconvictive explanation and feasible policy. Based on the study of foregone literatures andrelated theories, this thesis has made in depth analysis about the turning point of themid-to-late period of Guangdong’s population urbanization with the method of combination ofqualitative and quantitative analysis，and then expound the internal economical principle andthe significant impact of it, and next this passage promote some suggestions to thoseproblem mentioned above.In the part of introduction, the passage has explained the background and significance ofthe topic, and introduced the problems, possible innovation, the research ideas and method,and the structure. Meanwhile, this part has also defined the connotation of related conceptsand summarized the previous literature.In the second part, this thesis has analyzed the general characteristics of populationurbanization and filled up the missing data of Guangdong population urbanization. Next,using the classical Northam’s model, this thesis has made predictions about the turning pointof Guangdong population urbanization, and then demonstrated the correctness of theconclusion on the basis of some facts.In the third part, this thesis has introduced the analytic method of principle componentregression in order to make positive analysis on the factors which impact the course ofpopulation urbanization, next this passage has uncovered the differences between the previousand later stages in aspect of the factors, ways and degree of impact to explain why the turningof population urbanization has happened.Combining with the characteristics of the export-oriented economic development mode,the expected targets of population urbanization and the features of trans-regional urbanizationin Guangdong province, the fourth part has expressed the significant impact of the turning ofpopulation urbanization. The population urbanization bears significant importance, itsturning-point means the change of the interrelations of economic growth, resource allocation,urban and rural development. After discussing the spatial effects, economic effects and policyeffects of the turning of population urbanization, this thesis introduced the co-integration test of dynamic econometric method, Granger Causality test and impulse response model in orderto demonstrate and analyze the impact of the turning of the population urbanization toGuangdong’s economic growth.At last, aim to the facts and the possible negative impacts of the turning of the populationurbanizations, the passage promote specific countermeasures based on the developmentstrategy, institutional reform, regional policy of Guangdong province.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1) The population urbanization process ofGuangdong province has begun to change, it means that at present stage, the speed of thepopulation urbanization has gradually slowed down. The turning point of this period appearedaround the year of2001-2002which consistent with the period of “shortages of rural migrantworkers”.(2) The impact of the main influencing factors to population urbanization whichincludes government policies, open factors, urban income level and industrial structure hasweakened in different degree, and it leads to the slow-down of the population urbanization.(3)As the transformation process of economic development mode has not yet finished and thesituation of rural labors surplus is still severe, the slow-down trends of Guangdong’spopulation urbanization will bring great social and economic impact. On the one hand, itcould lighten the pressure of urbanization, and on the other hand, it could trigger some newproblems such as unbalance of the resource allocation between urban and rural area, moretroubles of rural development, and it may bring some challenges to the sustainabledevelopment.(4)The dynamic analysis between Guangdong’s population urbanization andeconomic growth shows that a kind of the long-term stable relationship exist between the twomentioned above, there are the Granger reason of each other, and the turning of populationurbanization will bring some negative impact to economic growth.(5) The turning ofpopulation urbanization is not merely a point but a long-time period. The development ofpopulation urbanization should avoid the phenomenon of over-accelerating of populationurbanization. Meanwhile, we should accelerate the transformation of development pattern,push forward the transfer of superfluous rural labors and optimize the resource allocationbetween urban and rural area.The possible innovations may include the following aspects: firstly, the turning ofpopulation urbanization is a forefront issues in the study of population urbanization, and theprevious literature is limited. What’s more, almost of the study focus on China’s populationurbanization, there is few literature focusing on one specific important province which bearsprominent features of trans-regional urbanization, this thesis is a brand-new study; secondly,there is some innovation in the content, for example, this thesis has improved the method of data repairing, filled up some missed data about population urbanization of Guangdongprovince, estimated the turning point of mid-to-late period of Guangdong province andanalyzed the reason and impact of the turning of population urbanization.